{"id":5572,"date":"2014-08-06T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2014-08-05T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/uncategorized\/akych-desat-rokov-caka-svetovu-ekonomiku\/"},"modified":"2014-08-06T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2014-08-05T23:00:00","slug":"akych-desat-rokov-caka-svetovu-ekonomiku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/archiv\/akych-desat-rokov-caka-svetovu-ekonomiku\/","title":{"rendered":"What kind of ten years awaits the global economy?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><strong>\u00a0 \u00a0P\u00e1ni prep\u00e1\u010dia, dobr\u00fdch 10 rokov n\u00e1s \u010dak\u00e1. Mo\u017eno\u00a0historicky najlep\u0161\u00edch. Aj ke\u010f to znie asi kac\u00edrsky,\u00a0mysl\u00edm si, \u017ee svetov\u00fa ekonomiku \u010dak\u00e1 v najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch\u00a0rokoch siln\u00fd rast a svet v\u00fdrazne zbohatne. Nat\u00edska\u00a0sa ot\u00e1zka, ak\u00e9 s\u00fa d\u00f4vody tohto poh\u013eadu? Pre\u010do si\u00a0to mysl\u00edm?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0 \u00a0Ve\u010f dnes je pr\u00e1ve to obdobie, ke\u010f\u00a0je na tom svet zle. V\u0161etko sa to\u00a0m\u00f4\u017ee \u201ezr\u00fati\u0165\u201c. Eur\u00f3pa sa pot\u00e1ca\u00a0nad dlhovou priepas\u0165ou, nad k\u00f3rejsk\u00fdm\u00a0poloostrovom prelietavaj\u00fa\u00a0strategick\u00e9 bombard\u00e9ry B-2 spirit\u00a0(ktor\u00fdch cena je mimochodom\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161ia ako cel\u00fd z\u00e1chrann\u00fd bal\u00edk pre\u00a0Cyprus), S\u00fdria sa zmieta na pokraji\u00a0konfliktu, ktor\u00fd m\u00f4\u017ee zap\u00e1li\u0165 rozbu\u0161ku\u00a0v celom arabskom svete,\u00a0\u010d\u00ednsky realitn\u00fd sektor m\u00e1 parametre,\u00a0pri ktor\u00fdch bola americk\u00e1\u00a0hypotek\u00e1rna kr\u00edza len drobnou\u00a0epiz\u00f3dou\u2026 ve\u013ea rizika, ve\u013emi ve\u013ea.\u00a0\u00c1no, ur\u010dite ak to tak chcem vidie\u0165.\u00a0Ide o uhol poh\u013eadu, negat\u00edvny sentiment\u00a0m\u00e1 n\u00e1sobne lep\u0161ie predpoklady\u00a0sa \u0161\u00edri\u0165 ako dobr\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy.\u00a0Dajte na prv\u00fa stranu \u201ekrv\u201c, nech\u00a0sa to lep\u0161ie pred\u00e1va\u2026<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0 \u00a0Trhmi h\u00fdbu em\u00f3cie. Panika a dav\u00a0sp\u00f4sobuj\u00fa turbulencie. Ale celkov\u00fd\u00a0trend je zalo\u017een\u00fd na inom. Na\u00a0silnej\u0161\u00edch predpokladoch ako je\u00a0n\u00e1lada spotrebite\u013eov. Preto mojou\u00a0snahou je pozrie\u0165 sa na veci bez\u00a0em\u00f3ci\u00ed. O\u010disti\u0165 sa od balastu, ktor\u00fd\u00a0deformuje realitu. Sentiment, \u0161ed\u00e1\u00a0eminencia investi\u010dn\u00fdch trhov\u2026 Za\u017eil\u00a0som dn\u00e1, ke\u010f v\u0161etci okolo boli\u00a0z\u00fafal\u00ed pesimisti a trh sa zrazu pobral\u00a0opa\u010dn\u00fdm smerom. Potom som\u00a0videl rastov\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy p\u00e1r dn\u00ed pred\u00a0fat\u00e1lnym prepadom. Sentiment\u00a0nie je dobr\u00fd radca o bud\u00facnosti.\u00a0Dnes je n\u00e1lada na bode mrazu, tak\u00a0zle nebude\u2026<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0 \u00a0M\u00e1me in\u00e9 predpoklady, plan\u00e9ta\u00a0sa zmenila. M\u00e1me najm\u00e4 historicky\u00a0bezprecedentn\u00fd potenci\u00e1l rie\u0161i\u0165\u00a0probl\u00e9my, ot\u00e1zky a situ\u00e1cie, ktor\u00e9\u00a0boli v minulosti nad na\u0161e kapacity.\u00a0Demografia bohatstva a demografia\u00a0intelektu\u00e1lneho potenci\u00e1lu\u00a0spravila v\u00fdznamn\u00fd skok, ktor\u00fd\u00a0v hist\u00f3rii nem\u00e1 obdoby. Po\u010das\u00a0jednej gener\u00e1cie sa svetov\u00e9 bohatstvo\u00a0zn\u00e1sobilo, nikdy nebolo tak\u00e9\u00a0mno\u017estvo \u013eud\u00ed tak bohat\u00fdch ako\u00a0pr\u00e1ve v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 sa po\u010das\u00a0tejto gener\u00e1cie v\u00fdrazne pred\u013a\u017eila\u00a0priemern\u00e1 d\u013a\u017eka \u017eivota, a teda\u00a0v\u00fdsledkom t\u00fdchto premenn\u00fdch je\u00a0skokov\u00fd n\u00e1rast po\u010dtu vzdelan\u00fdch\u00a0\u013eud\u00ed na \u00farovne n\u00e1sobne presahuj\u00face\u00a0predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facu gener\u00e1ciu.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0 \u00a0M\u00e1me kapacitu rie\u0161i\u0165 n\u00e1sobn\u00e9\u00a0mno\u017estvo probl\u00e9mov ove\u013ea vy\u0161\u0161ej\u00a0zlo\u017eitosti. Preto je v\u00fdvoj tak\u00fd r\u00fdchly.\u00a0Predch\u00e1dzaj\u00face gener\u00e1cie s\u00fa\u00a0z tohto poh\u013eadu ako \u017eiak z\u00e1kladnej\u00a0\u0161koly, ktor\u00fd sa tr\u00e1pi s rovnicou s\u00a0dvomi nezn\u00e1mymi oproti vedeck\u00e9mu\u00a0t\u00edmu na MIT. Navy\u0161e, sme na\u00a0prahu energetickej revol\u00facie, ak\u00fa\u00a0svet za\u017eil sn\u00e1\u010f len raz. Ropa \u0165ahala\u00a0v\u00fdvoj u\u017e dlho, rozsah aktiv\u00edt, ktor\u00e9\u00a0sa venuj\u00fa jej alternat\u00edvam je tak\u00fd\u00a0rozsiahly, \u017ee je pravdepodobn\u00e1 \u00a0siln\u00e1 transform\u00e1cia svetovej ekonomiky\u00a0z h\u013eadiska energetick\u00fdch\u00a0potrieb. Je ot\u00e1zne, \u010di dominanciu\u00a0preberie bridlicov\u00fd plyn, ktor\u00fd u\u017e\u00a0dnes men\u00ed energetick\u00e9 paradigmy\u00a0najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ej svetovej ekonomiky\u00a0alebo to bude st\u00e1le viac dostupn\u00e1\u00a0sol\u00e1rna energia, \u010di \u00faplne in\u00e1 nov\u00e1\u00a0alternat\u00edva. Je v\u0161ak dobr\u00fdm predpokladom,\u00a0\u017ee energie bude ve\u013ea\u00a0a teda za dobr\u00fa cenu, \u010do bezpochyby\u00a0bude siln\u00fdm anabolikom pre\u00a0svetov\u00fa ekonomiku.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0 \u00a0Poh\u00e1r je teda polopr\u00e1zdny? Polopln\u00fd?\u00a0V USA kles\u00e1 nezamestnanos\u0165\u00a04 roky, u\u017e ani jeden americk\u00fd\u00a0\u0161t\u00e1t nem\u00e1 dvojcifern\u00fa nezamestnanos\u0165\u00a0(Rhode Island s najvy\u0161\u0161ou\u00a0mierou nezamestnanosti tesne\u00a0pod jej 10% \u00farov\u0148ou), US dom\u00e1cnosti\u00a0dosiahli najni\u017e\u0161\u00ed podiel spl\u00e1tok\u00a0svojho dlhu k svojim pr\u00edjmom\u00a0za viac ako 3 dek\u00e1dy (nepodce\u0148oval\u00a0by som tento \u00fadaj, t\u00edto spotrebitelia\u00a0maj\u00fa podobn\u00fa ekonomick\u00fa\u00a0silu ako \u010c\u00edna a Nemecko dokopy\u00a0a m\u00f4\u017eu za\u010da\u0165 m\u00ed\u0148a\u0165 ove\u013ea viac\u00a0ako doposia\u013e). Cash, iba cash, na\u00a0\u00fa\u010dtoch americk\u00fdch firiem dosiahol\u00a0z\u00e1vratn\u00fa sumu 1500 mili\u00e1rd USD\u00a0(\u010do je suma vy\u0161\u0161ia ako HDP \u0160panielska\u00a0a o m\u00e1lo ni\u017e\u0161ia ako HDP\u00a0Ruska a Indie) a ziskovos\u0165 t\u00fdchto\u00a0firiem dosiahla historick\u00e9 maxim\u00e1.\u00a0Ak by sme dali vy\u0161\u0161iu v\u00e1hu t\u00fdmto\u00a0inform\u00e1ci\u00e1m vo svojom poh\u013eade\u00a0na ekonomick\u00fa situ\u00e1ciu, k ak\u00fdm\u00a0z\u00e1verom by sme sa dopracovali?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0 \u00a0Netr\u00fafnem si poveda\u0165, \u010di najviac\u00a0narastie S &amp; P index alebo DAX.\u00a0USD m\u00f4\u017ee \u010daka\u0165 ako strata svojho\u00a0postavenia, tak aj posilnenie\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasnej \u00farovne. \u010co by som v\u0161ak\u00a0dal do popredia \u00favah s\u00fa trendy\u00a0v poklese svetovej chudoby, zmena\u00a0ekonomickej sily rozv\u00edjaj\u00facich\u00a0sa trhov. O 10 rokov m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165\u00a0Latinsk\u00e1 Amerika bohat\u00fd regi\u00f3n,\u00a0Afrika nemus\u00ed hladova\u0165 a Peking\u00a0m\u00f4\u017ee ma\u0165 viac obyvate\u013eov ako\u00a0Franc\u00fazsko. Pribudn\u00fa \u00faplne nov\u00e9\u00a0vedeck\u00e9 odbory a priemyseln\u00e9\u00a0odvetvia, odhadova\u0165 silu ktor\u00fdch\u00a0je dnes m\u00e1lo prezierav\u00e9 (po sk\u00fasenosti\u00a0s internetovou ekonomikou\u00a0a mobilnou komunik\u00e1ciou).\u00a0Je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee firmou s najvy\u0161\u0161ou\u00a0trhovou kapitaliz\u00e1ciou bude indon\u00e9zska\u00a0spolo\u010dnos\u0165 zameran\u00e1 na\u00a0nanotechnol\u00f3gie alebo glob\u00e1lna\u00a0kozmick\u00e1 agent\u00fara alebo gerontoslu\u017ebami\u00a0zaoberaj\u00faci sa konglomer\u00e1t\u00a0z \u010c\u00edny\u2026 Svet sa bude meni\u0165\u00a0r\u00fdchlej\u0161ie ako kedyko\u013evek v minulosti.\u00a0Teda \u017eiadne istoty\u2026 ale bude\u00a0lep\u0161ie. Ove\u013ea lep\u0161ie.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>\u00a0Peter Bobik<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a0 \u00a0P\u00e1ni prep\u00e1\u010dia, dobr\u00fdch 10 rokov n\u00e1s \u010dak\u00e1. Mo\u017eno\u00a0historicky najlep\u0161\u00edch. Aj ke\u010f to znie asi kac\u00edrsky,\u00a0mysl\u00edm si, \u017ee svetov\u00fa ekonomiku \u010dak\u00e1 v najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch\u00a0rokoch siln\u00fd rast<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5572","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-archiv","two-columns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5572","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5572"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5572\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5572"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5572"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5572"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}