<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Slovensk\u00e1 ekonomika tento rok naplno zo\u017ene efekt prijatia eura. Euro tenduj\u00face k parite s dol\u00e1rom je bezpochyby pre exportne orientovan\u00fa ekonomiku v\u00fdhoda. A to ve\u013ek\u00e1. Aj ke\u010f ide o sprostredkovan\u00fd efekt cez export na\u0161ich k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdch obchodn\u00fdch partnerov, nemeck\u00fd boomuj\u00faci v\u00fdvoz n\u00e1m prid\u00e1 k tvorbe HDP na strane n\u00e1\u0161ho exportu nezanedbate\u013en\u00e9 desatiny percenta. Bude viac pr\u00e1ce ako vo finalizuj\u00facich podnikoch, tak aj u dod\u00e1vate\u013eov. Automobilky pokoriace mili\u00f3nov\u00fa \u00farove\u0148 po\u010dtu vyroben\u00fdch kusov automobilov nebud\u00fa jedin\u00e9, kto si siahne na rekordn\u00e9 predaje.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Efektom bude razantnej\u0161\u00ed pokles nezamestnanosti. T\u00e1to kles\u00e1 pomaly u\u017e dlh\u0161iu dobu, tento rok by sme mohli vidie\u0165 lep\u0161ie \u010d\u00edsla a zr\u00fdch\u013euj\u00faci sa trend. S t\u00fdm sa sp\u00e1ja viac kupuj\u00facich, viac spotreby a teda viac v pe\u0148a\u017eenk\u00e1ch n\u00e1s v\u0161etk\u00fdch. A v t\u00fdch pe\u0148a\u017eenk\u00e1ch by mohlo by\u0165 viac pe\u0148az\u00ed ako v predo\u0161l\u00fdch rokoch v\u00fdraznej\u0161ie. Pozoruhodn\u00fa sumu prileje pokles \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb. Hypot\u00e9ky zlacneli v\u00fdrazne a tento trend bude e\u0161te chv\u00ed\u013eu pokra\u010dova\u0165. Celkovo by do spotreby dom\u00e1cnosti mohol prinies\u0165 a\u017e 300 mili\u00f3nov eur, \u010do je slu\u0161n\u00e1 suma. Podobn\u00fd dopad bude ma\u0165 aj pokles sadzieb spotrebn\u00fdch \u00faverov, hoc rozsah bude men\u0161\u00ed. E\u0161te v\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed dopad by mohol ma\u0165 pokles cien pohonn\u00fdch hm\u00f4t \u0165ahan\u00fd prepadom cien ropy. Tu by pr\u00ednos atakoval pol miliardy\u00a0a dopad by bol ve\u013emi \u0161irokospektr\u00e1lny, maj\u00faci multiplikat\u00edvny efekt. V\u00fddavky klesn\u00fa v\u0161etk\u00fdm, pre ktor\u00fdch je doprava n\u00e1kladom v ich \u010dinnosti. T\u00edto to prenes\u00fa do cien svojich tovarov alebo slu\u017eieb, pr\u00edpadne im to nav\u00fd\u0161i zisk a to umo\u017en\u00ed zamestna\u0165 \u010fal\u0161\u00edch \u013eud\u00ed alebo prida\u0165 na v\u00fdplate s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdm zamestnancom. D\u00fafajme, \u017ee tento stav chv\u00ed\u013eu potrv\u00e1. Je tu aj predpoklad poklesu cien \u010fal\u0161\u00edch energi\u00ed. Na \u00fa\u010dtoch dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed za spotrebu energie bud\u00fa ni\u017e\u0161ie sumy, \u010do tie\u017e podpor\u00ed spotrebu. Pritom rast miezd, aj ke\u010f nie vysok\u00fd bude pokra\u010dova\u0165. Kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e1 defl\u00e1cia sa nejav\u00ed nijak devastuj\u00faca.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Tieto faktory sn\u00e1\u010f privolaj\u00fa jav dlho neviden\u00fd, roky sa skr\u00fdvaj\u00faci, nezvestn\u00fd a pritom pre ekonomiku blahod\u00e1rny. tzv. pozit\u00edvny sentiment. N\u00e1lada spotrebite\u013eov vo svojej negat\u00edvnej podobe predch\u00e1dza p\u00e1d do priepasti a v pozit\u00edvnom odtieni obdobia radostn\u00e9 a \u0161tedr\u00e9. Alebo ich tvor\u00ed? \u010co je prv\u00e9, chu\u0165 nakupova\u0165 alebo vy\u0161\u0161ie tempo ekonomick\u00e9ho rastu? \u010ci sk\u00f4r na\u0161tartovan\u00e1 ekonomika podporuje chu\u0165 nakupova\u0165? \u010eal\u0161ie Kolumbovo vajce\u2026 a vlastne diskusia nie podstatn\u00e1, lebo jej v\u00fdsledok, nech je ak\u00fdko\u013evek, hovor\u00ed o jave naskrz pozit\u00edvnom. Pozit\u00edvny sentiment m\u00f4\u017ee da\u0165 ekonomike kr\u00eddla. Viac sa bude kupova\u0165, viac sa bude po\u017ei\u010diava\u0165 a aj vyr\u00e1ba\u0165. To je predpoklad na viac nap\u00edsan\u00fdch kn\u00edh, viac nato\u010den\u00fdch filmov, viac divadiel\u2026 na lep\u0161ie \u010dasy. Doma bude tento rok lep\u0161ie.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u00a0Peter Bobik<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Doma je dobre \u2026a u\u017e d\u00e1vno to tak optimisticky nevyzeralo. Tento rok bude nad o\u010dak\u00e1vania. Pre\u010do? Pok\u00fasim sa zamyslie\u0165 a zhrn\u00fa\u0165 d\u00f4vody, pre\u010do pova\u017eujem odhady<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5649","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-archiv","two-columns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5649","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5649"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5649\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5649"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5649"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5649"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}