<\/p>\n
Nezamestnanos\u0165 v Spojen\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1toch dosiahla predkr\u00edzov\u00fa \u00farove\u0148, profitabilita firiem dosiahla historick\u00e9 maxim\u00e1 (rovnako ako objem cash v bilanci\u00e1ch), S & P index je nad 2000 bodmi (kde nikdy nebol) a najm\u00e4 boli sme svedkom v\u00fdrazn\u00e9ho odd\u013a\u017eenia americk\u00fdch dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed (to\u0165 najpodstatnej\u0161ia \u010das\u0165 US ekonomiky), ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti pripraven\u00e9 nakupova\u0165 v rozsahu neb\u00fdvalom. Ak by chceli. Ako povedal Gordon Gekko (Wall Street, 1987): \u201eChamtivos\u0165 je dobr\u00e1 pre nedostatok lep\u0161\u00edch slov. Chamtivos\u0165 je spr\u00e1vna, chamtivos\u0165 funguje, chamtivos\u0165 objas\u0148uje, o\u010dis\u0165uje a zachyt\u00e1va esenciu evolu\u010d- n\u00e9ho ducha.\u201c Ak tomu tak je, potom US ekonomiku \u010dakaj\u00fa sk\u00f4r svetl\u00e9 zajtraj\u0161ky, ako smutn\u00e1 etapa. A u n\u00e1s? U n\u00e1s sa dost\u00e1va do popredia t\u00e9ma defl\u00e1cie. Hor\u0161ie to sn\u00e1\u010f ani by\u0165 nem\u00f4\u017ee. \u201eV \u010dem ud\u011blali soudruzi chybu?\u201c (Pel\u00ed\u0161ky, 1999) Tak som po\u010das v\u00edkendu zhliadol \u010das\u0165 seri\u00e1\u00ad lu Poirot a do mysle si vlo\u017eil neodbytn\u00fa my\u0161lienku. K \u010domu by sme dospeli, ak by niekto mal t\u00fato udalos\u0165, kauzu Eur\u00f3py dne\u0161ka, vy\u0161etri\u0165? Kto toto sp\u00f4sobil a pre\u00ad \u010do. Koho obvin\u00edme? \u010co ak by sme zapojili \u0161ed\u00e9 bunky mozgov\u00e9?<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Tak na za\u010diatok podstatn\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky. Kto s\u00fa hlavn\u00ed akt\u00e9ri kauzy Eur\u00f3pa? Cui bono? Komu prospeje dosiahnut\u00fd stav (ot\u00e1zka sprev\u00e1dzaj\u00faca n\u00e1s u\u017e od Marca Tullia Cicera)? Ako konali hlavn\u00ed akt\u00e9ri? Hlavn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edci sa daj\u00fa aj bez ob\u00e1van\u00e9ho vplyvu na spr\u00e1vnos\u0165 \u00favah rozdeli\u0165 na sever a juh kontinentu. Stredn\u00fa Eur\u00f3pu si nechajme na samostatn\u00fd odstavec, preto\u017ee tu sme doma. Ve\u013ek\u00fa Brit\u00e1niu z my\u0161lienok o EU vynechajme z prozaick\u00e9ho d\u00f4vodu – pocitu, \u017ee monarchia to tak sama chce. Minim\u00e1lne m\u00f4\u017eeme kon\u0161tatova\u0165, \u017ee jej politika je s politikou \u00fanie nekonzistentn\u00e1).<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Cui bono? P\u00fdtajme sa pod\u013ea v\u00fdsledku. Kto je v E\u00da v\u00ed\u0165azom, komu s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fd stav veci a rozhodnutia posledn\u00fdch rokov prospievaj\u00fa? Po rezult\u00e1t \u010faleko chodi\u0165 nemus\u00edme, a to ani geograficky. Zatia\u013e, \u010do juh Eur\u00f3py prech\u00e1dza o\u010distcom, sever je vo v\u00fdbornej kond\u00edcii. Nezamestnanos\u0165 v Nemecku sa bl\u00ed\u017ei historick\u00fdm minim\u00e1m, rozpo\u010det je vyrovnan\u00fd, index DAX sa predned\u00e1vnom (s\u00edce nakr\u00e1tko) dostal nad hodnotu 10000, na ktor\u00fa sa pozrel prv\u00fdkr\u00e1t v hist\u00f3ri\u00ed. Pre porovnanie, celoeur\u00f3psky index EURO STOXX 50, zahr\u0148aj\u00faci aj spolo\u010dnosti z ju\u017enej \u010dasti Eur\u00f3py, str\u00e1ca zo svojich max\u00edm dosiahnut\u00fdch v predkr\u00ed\u00ad zov\u00fdch \u010dasoch viac ako \u0161tvrtinu. Export nemeck\u00fdch firiem je nad hodnotami v minulosti vysn\u00edvan\u00fdmi a Frankfurt tr\u00e1pi za\u010d\u00ed\u00ad naj\u00faca sa realitn\u00e1 bublina, znamenie doby postihnutej konjunkt\u00farou.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Kde sa rod\u00ed tento \u00faspech? Je to predov\u0161etk\u00fdm \u00faspech nemeck\u00e9ho exportn\u00e9ho priemyslu, ktor\u00fd vytv\u00e1ra nov\u00e9 pracovn\u00e9 miesta, vy\u0165a\u017euje subdod\u00e1vate\u013eov, plat\u00ed v\u00fdborne svojich zamestnancov a podobne? \u010co mu tak prospieva? Je tu nieko\u013eko v\u00fdnimo\u010dn\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed (n\u00e1hod?) ako n\u00edzke \u00farokov\u00e9 sadzby, slab\u00e9, \u00e1no slab\u00e9 euro a v neposlednom rade akceptovate\u013en\u00e9 da\u0148ov\u00e9 za\u0165a\u017eenie. Prizrime sa t\u00fdmto faktorom bli\u017e\u0161ie. Ak by sme tu nemali euroz\u00f3nu, boli by sadzby Bundesbank s vysokou pravdepodobnos\u0165ou inde, ako s\u00fa dne\u0161n\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sadzby ECB. To samozrejme umo\u017e\u0148uje \u00faspe\u0161n\u00e9mu nemeck\u00e9\u00ad mu priemyslu financova\u0165 svoje investi\u010dn\u00e9 aktivity neb\u00fdvalo lacno. Ak by sme tu nemali euroz\u00f3nu, nemeck\u00e1 marka by bola pravdepodobne o dos\u0165 silnej\u0161ia, ako je dne\u0161n\u00e9 osudom sk\u00fa\u0161an\u00e9 euro a je len vecou \u0161pekul\u00e1ci\u00ed, o ko\u013eko viac by Mercedes st\u00e1l v Amerike a v \u00c1zii a o ko\u013eko menej by sa ich preto podarilo preda\u0165. Da\u0148ov\u00e9 za\u00ad \u0165a\u017eenie nemeck\u00fdch firiem je v posledn\u00fdch rokoch stabiln\u00e9, \u010do je v Eur\u00f3pe takmer jav \u0161afr\u00e1nov\u00fd, ba dokonca sa hovor\u00ed o jeho poklese. Vyrovnan\u00fd rozpo\u010det viac nep\u00fd\u00ad ta. Tomu sa hovor\u00ed priazniv\u00e1 kon\u0161tel\u00e1cia hviezd, v pr\u00edpade, ak je to n\u00e1hoda. Pozoruhodnou odli\u0161nos\u0165ou je konzistentnos\u0165 politiky severu a to aj person\u00e1lna. Je \u010ditate\u013en\u00e1, zatia\u013e \u010do juh sa bor\u00ed s neust\u00e1lymi zmenami os\u00f4b a obsadenia. Takto \u010faleko ned\u00f4jdete, ke\u010f neust\u00e1le men\u00edte \u0161of\u00e9ra a cestu. Angela Merkelov\u00e1 je tv\u00e1rou desa\u0165ro\u010dia.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
A \u010do my? Eur\u00f3pa stredn\u00e1. Slovensko na\u0161e. Stredn\u00e1 Eur\u00f3pa m\u00e1 p\u00e1s nepochybn\u00e9ho \u00faspechu. Var\u0161ava, Bratislava a Viede\u0148 d\u00e1vno prekonali predkr\u00edzov\u00e9 maxim\u00e1 a s\u00fa ekonomicky jasne severnou \u010das\u0165ou Eur\u00f3py. Budape\u0161\u0165 ide svojou cestou a Praha, tam by spokojn\u00ed by\u0165 nemali. Slovensko, my sme predkr\u00edzov\u00e9 \u00farovne prekonali u\u017e Cui bono? Financie, anal\u00fdzy a trendy Finance, analyses and trends 7 d\u00e1vnej\u0161ie. Nar\u00e1stla n\u00e1m nezamestnanos\u0165, kde sprievodn\u00fdm javom je prudk\u00fd rast produktivity pr\u00e1ce, \u010do je, ako sa ukazuje, ve\u013emi d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9 pre zahrani\u010dn\u00fdch investorov. A v regi\u00f3ne sme v tomto smere najlep\u0161\u00ed, najkonkurencieschopnej\u0161\u00ed. To je pozit\u00edvny uhol poh\u013eadu.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
A teda, aj ke\u010f nie sme vinn\u00ed, preto\u017ee o dian\u00ed v Eur\u00f3pe ve\u013emi nerozhodujeme, mali by sme by\u0165 radi, ako to cel\u00e9 dopadlo.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Ak\u00fd z toho vieme urobi\u0165 z\u00e1ver? Vidiac, \u017ee sme na r\u00e1zcest\u00ed, asi sa za\u010dne dia\u0165 osved\u010den\u00fd scen\u00e1r, dovezen\u00fd spoza Atlantiku. Pre Eur\u00f3pu by teda 2015 mohol by\u0165 dobr\u00fd ro\u010dn\u00edk.<\/p>\n
S autorskou licenciou a slobodou poh\u013eadu sa s Vami l\u00fa\u010di<\/p>\n
Peter Bobik<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Nejak sa vz\u010fa\u013eujeme. Zatia\u013e, \u010do my tu v slzavej Eur\u00f3pe hovor\u00edme o kr\u00edze, slab\u00fdch a nedostato\u010dn\u00fdch rastov\u00fdch trendoch s vratk\u00fdmi z\u00e1kladmi, za oce\u00e1nom sme absolvovali<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5669","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-archiv","two-columns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5669","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5669"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5669\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5669"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5669"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5669"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}