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Hlavn\u00fdm d\u00f4vodom nie s\u00fa len predpokladan\u00e9 pozit\u00edvne efekty jej prijatia, ale aj fakt, \u017ee t\u00edto transatlantick\u00ed partneri sa u\u017e od roku 2008 nevedia vymani\u0165 z\u00a0vleklej finan\u010dnej kr\u00edzy. Tento fakt m\u00e1 negat\u00edvny vplyv na celkov\u00fa politick\u00fa atmosf\u00e9ru na obidvoch stran\u00e1ch Atlantick\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu. Nutne preto potrebuj\u00fa agendu, ktor\u00e1 by vytv\u00e1rala nov\u00e9 mo\u017enosti na obnovu ekonomick\u00e9ho rastu.<\/p>\n
Prijatie dohody by malo E\u00da, pod\u013ea CEPR, zv\u00fd\u0161i\u0165 pr\u00edjmy \u00a0asi o 120 mld. \u20ac\u00a0 ro\u010dne \u00a0a HDP o\u00a0cca 0,5%. Z\u00a0predpokladan\u00e9ho zv\u00fd\u0161enia exportu do USA (8%) by mal \u0165a\u017ei\u0165 hlavne automobilov\u00fd, ale aj farmaceutick\u00fd a\u00a0stroj\u00e1rsky priemysel. Optimistick\u00e9 vyhliadky s\u00fa prisudzovan\u00e9 obchodu so slu\u017ebami i\u00a0agrosektoru. Okrem zlep\u0161enia podmienok v\u00a0bilater\u00e1lnej zahrani\u010dnoobchodnej v\u00fdmene negoci\u00e1tori zv\u00fdraz\u0148uj\u00fa pozit\u00edvny vplyv efektov vypl\u00fdvaj\u00facich z\u00a0odstra\u0148ovania r\u00f4znych regula\u010dn\u00fdch opatren\u00ed (technick\u00e9, sanit\u00e1rne,\u00a0fytosanit\u00e1rne a\u00a0in\u00e9 prek\u00e1\u017eky), doteraz vyu\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch hlavne v\u00a0stroj\u00e1rskom, chemickom a\u00a0farmaceutickom priemysle. Pr\u00ednosom m\u00e1 by\u0165 aj liberaliz\u00e1cia \u010fal\u0161\u00edch obmedzuj\u00facich pravidiel v\u00a0oblastiach energetiky, du\u0161evn\u00e9ho vlastn\u00edctva alebo hospod\u00e1rskej s\u00fa\u0165a\u017ee.<\/p>\n
N\u00e1zory odborn\u00edkov na ratifik\u00e1ciu tejto dohody sa r\u00f4znia. Mnoh\u00ed upozor\u0148uj\u00fa na jej viacer\u00e9 problematick\u00e9 oblasti. Okrem sektoru po\u013enohospod\u00e1rstva, kde ide hlavne o\u00a0zachovanie eur\u00f3pskych sanit\u00e1rnych a\u00a0hygienick\u00fdch \u0161tandardov a\u00a0ochranu spotrebite\u013ea pred dod\u00e1vkami napr\u00edklad geneticky modifikovan\u00fdch potrav\u00edn, s\u00fa rizik\u00e1 predov\u0161etk\u00fdm v\u00a0rozdielnych mechanizmoch rie\u0161enia sporov (ISDS) medzi investormi a\u00a0\u0161t\u00e1tmi (arbitr\u00e1\u017ee). Doteraj\u0161ia prax ukazuje, \u017ee v\u00a0nich maj\u00fa \u201enavrch\u201c hlavne nadn\u00e1rodn\u00e9 spolo\u010dnosti (TNK) a\u00a0jednoduch\u0161ie presadzovanie ich investi\u010dn\u00fdch z\u00e1merov na terit\u00f3riu \u00fanie.<\/p>\n
Ekonomick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj v\u00a0roku 2015 a\u00a0jeho predikcie na rok 2016 prijatiu takejto dohody zatia\u013e nepraj\u00fa. Enormn\u00e9 posil\u0148ovanie americk\u00e9ho dol\u00e1ra m\u00e1 negat\u00edvny vplyv na konkurencieschopnos\u0165 v\u00fdvozu z\u00a0USA a\u00a0len \u010diasto\u010dne zlep\u0161uje n\u00e1klady na invest\u00edcie v\u00a0zahrani\u010d\u00ed. Pokles cien ropy \u010di z\u00a0toho plyn\u00face zni\u017eovanie cien zemn\u00e9ho plynu a\u00a0uhlia zasa nepriaznivo ovplyv\u0148uje poz\u00edcie mnoh\u00fdch americk\u00fdch obchodn\u00fdch partnerov, pre ktor\u00fdch s\u00fa suroviny \u010dasto jedin\u00fdm re\u00e1lnym platidlom za dod\u00e1vky tovarov. Pokles ich k\u00fapnej sily nutne vyvol\u00e1va zn\u00ed\u017eenie dopytu po tovare. E\u00da sa zasa bor\u00ed s\u00a0obrovskou zadl\u017eenos\u0165ou niektor\u00fdch kraj\u00edn euroz\u00f3ny, hlavne Gr\u00e9cka; a\u00a0rizikami, ktor\u00e9 z\u00a0toho pre jej celkov\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd rast a\u00a0strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1mery plyn\u00fa.<\/p>\n
Akosi bokom t\u00fdchto diskusi\u00ed zost\u00e1vaj\u00fa geostrategick\u00e9 konzekvencie a jej ratifik\u00e1cia, hlavne pokia\u013e ide o\u00a0obchodn\u00e9, ale najm\u00e4 politick\u00e9 vz\u0165ahy vo\u010di ostatn\u00fdm ve\u013ek\u00fdm hr\u00e1\u010dom na svetovom \u201ekolbi\u0161ti\u201c. Pokia\u013e sa USA, ktor\u00e9 reprezentuj\u00fa hlavne TNK maj\u00face silne bilater\u00e1lne poz\u00edcie v\u00a0ka\u017edej hospod\u00e1rsky v\u00fdznamnej\u0161ej krajine, spoliehaj\u00fa na svoju politicko-vojensk\u00fa autoritu, situ\u00e1cia Eur\u00f3py je a\u00a0m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 a\u017e diametr\u00e1lne odli\u0161n\u00e1. T\u00fdka sa to hlavne v\u00fdvoja vz\u0165ahov s jej tradi\u010dn\u00fdmi obchodn\u00fdmi partnermi, a\u00a0to s Ruskom i\u00a0juho\u00e1zijsk\u00fdmi ekonomikami, hlavne v\u0161ak s\u00a0\u010c\u00ednou. Je zrejm\u00e9, \u017ee preh\u013abenie v\u00e4zieb E\u00da-USA bude ma\u0165 vo\u010di nim recipro\u010dn\u00fd charakter a\u00a0bud\u00fa musie\u0165 na nov\u00fa situ\u00e1ciu reagova\u0165. Rast\u00faca intenzita diskusi\u00ed Ruska s\u00a0\u010c\u00ednou o\u00a0vzniku nov\u00e9ho euro-\u00e1zijsk\u00e9ho zoskupenia, prehlbovanie hospod\u00e1rskych vz\u0165ahov kraj\u00edn BRICs spojen\u00e9 so vznikom \u00e1zijskej investi\u010dnej banky (AIB) alebo silnej\u00face aktivity tzv. \u0160anghajsk\u00e9ho klubu nazna\u010duj\u00fa, \u017ee h\u013eadaj\u00fa rie\u0161enia v\u00a0preh\u013aben\u00ed vlastn\u00fdch bilater\u00e1lnych vz\u0165ahov. Anal\u00fdzy obchodn\u00fdch vz\u0165ahov E\u00da s\u00a0juhov\u00fdchodnou \u00c1ziou zatia\u013e potvrdzuj\u00fa rast, v\u00a0roku 2013 bol podiel exportu E\u00da do tohto terit\u00f3ria vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ako do USA (21% oproti 16,6%) a e\u0161te markantnej\u0161\u00ed bol v\u00a0pr\u00edpade dovozu (25% resp. 11,6%). Ni\u010d to nehovor\u00ed o\u00a0tom, ako bud\u00fa tieto toky vyzera\u0165, ak Rusko pon\u00fakne svoje suroviny doteraz exportovan\u00e9 do E\u00da na V\u00fdchod.<\/p>\n
Pokia\u013e ide o\u00a0geostrat\u00e9giu, prijatie dohody TTIP bude, pod\u013ea n\u00e1zoru mienkotvorn\u00fdch odborn\u00edkov, znamena\u0165 ochladenie ekonomick\u00fdch vz\u0165ahov E\u00da s\u00a0\u00e1zijsk\u00fdmi partnermi i\u00a0Ruskom. I\u00a0ke\u010f sa to neprejav\u00ed hne\u010f v\u00a0kadencii vz\u00e1jomnej v\u00fdmeny, bude to ma\u0165 zna\u010dn\u00fd vplyv na pokles konkurencieschopnosti E\u00da, celkov\u00e9ho dopytu i\u00a0na o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00e9 spolo\u010densko-ekonomick\u00e9 efekty. S\u00a0Ruskom tvor\u00ed Eur\u00f3pa historicky komplement\u00e1rny celok s dlhodobo vn\u00fatorne prepojen\u00fdmi ekonomick\u00fdmi i\u00a0politick\u00fdmi z\u00e1ujmami. I\u00a0ke\u010f tie s\u00fa v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasnosti z\u00a0d\u00f4vodu konfliktu na Ukrajine ochladen\u00e9, nemo\u017eno tento fakt strati\u0165 zo zrete\u013ea. V\u00a0pr\u00edpade jej prijatia bude Rusko n\u00faten\u00e9 nasmerova\u0165 ich do \u00c1zie. V\u00fdmena surov\u00edn za tovary bude znamena\u0165 ve\u013ek\u00e9 invest\u00edcie do prepravn\u00fdch siet\u00ed a\u00a0logistiky a tie ho \u201ezvia\u017eu\u201c hlavne s \u010c\u00ednou na dlh\u00e9 obdobie. Slovensko pravdepodobne postupne strat\u00ed \u0161tat\u00fat tranzitnej krajiny ako aj\u00a0pr\u00edjmy, ktor\u00e9 z\u00a0tejto poz\u00edcie plynuli. N\u00e1hradn\u00e9 rie\u0161enia bud\u00fa drah\u00e9 a\u00a0bud\u00fa negat\u00edvne ovplyv\u0148ova\u0165 konkurencieschopnos\u0165 Slovenska. \u00dania by si mala starostlivo zv\u00e1\u017ei\u0165, \u010di jej dohoda vytvor\u00ed priestor, v\u00a0ktorom bude schopn\u00e1 trvale presadzova\u0165 vlastn\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 z\u00e1ujmy. A\u00a0\u010di priame a\u00a0nepriame straty z\u00a0predpokladan\u00e9ho ochladenia vz\u0165ahov s\u00a0Ruskom i\u00a0\u00e1zijsk\u00fdm blokom nepresiahnu tieto zatia\u013e len potenci\u00e1lne benefity.<\/p>\n
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Prof. Ing. Peter Bal\u00e1\u017e, PhD.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dohoda o transatlantickom obchodnom a\u00a0investi\u010dnom partnerstve TTIP medzi E\u00da a\u00a0USA, ktorej z\u00e1kladn\u00e9 r\u00e1mce s\u00fa diskutovan\u00e9 americkou administrat\u00edvou i\u00a0org\u00e1nmi E\u00da u\u017e druh\u00fd rok, nadob\u00fadaj\u00fa hlavne po<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-archiv","two-columns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5682","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5682"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5682\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5682"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5682"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5682"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}