{"id":5812,"date":"2016-10-07T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2016-10-06T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/uncategorized\/uz-dlhsie-mame-na-navsteve-pani-deflaciu-a-nevieme-o-tom\/"},"modified":"2016-10-07T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2016-10-06T23:00:00","slug":"uz-dlhsie-mame-na-navsteve-pani-deflaciu-a-nevieme-o-tom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/archiv\/uz-dlhsie-mame-na-navsteve-pani-deflaciu-a-nevieme-o-tom\/","title":{"rendered":"We&#039;ve had Mrs. Deflation visiting for a while now and we don&#039;t know about it"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><span lang=\"sk-SK\">V\u00a0j\u00fali 2016 miera medziro\u010dnej infl\u00e1cie v \u00fahrne dosiahla hodnotu -0,9\u00a0%. To\u013eko \u0160tatistick\u00fd \u00farad SR. Ceny u n\u00e1s ner\u00e1stli od konca roka 2013. Tret\u00ed rok tu m\u00e1me defl\u00e1ciu, jav v ekonomickej obci rovnaj\u00faci sa morovej rane. Tvrdo pracuj\u00facu krajinu vych\u00e1dzaj\u00faceho slnka t\u00e1to realita zastavila v expanzii na jednu gener\u00e1ciu, strach z nej l\u00eddrov v najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ej ekonomike prin\u00fatil v roku 2008 kona\u0165 r\u00fdchlo a \u00faplne mimo svojich \u0161tandardn\u00fdch pr\u00edstupov. Teda d\u00f4vod na paniku?\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<p><span lang=\"sk-SK\">Ale nie. Sme svojsk\u00e1 krajina a toto je jeden z pr\u00edkladov na\u0161ej jedine\u010dnosti. Defl\u00e1cie sa neboj\u00edme a ani ju nevid\u00edme. Na \u00farovni mikroekon\u00f3mie, teda tam, kde sa \u017eije a svet je farebn\u00fd, to vyzer\u00e1 asi takto. Drviv\u00e1 v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina op\u00fdtan\u00fdch na ot\u00e1zku <\/span><span lang=\"sk-SK\">Ako na Slovensku rast\u00fa ceny<\/span><span lang=\"sk-SK\"> odpovie: &#8222;R\u00fdchlo.&#8220; Ka\u017ed\u00e1 tak\u00e1to anketa v telev\u00edzii ma n\u00fati rozm\u00fd\u0161\u013ea\u0165 nad sebou&#8230; tak\u00fd sebaklam. Ale potom si otvor\u00edm diskusiu pod \u010dl\u00e1nkom v mienkotvornom m\u00e9diu informuj\u00facom o poklese cien (defl\u00e1cii) a za\u010d\u00ednam vn\u00edma\u0165 realitu. Diskutuj\u00faci s\u00fa silne iritovan\u00ed a pohor\u0161en\u00ed nad t\u00fdm, \u017ee niekto nie\u010do tak\u00e9 nap\u00ed\u0161e. Je to klamstvo, hovor\u00ed vox populi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"sk-SK\">Nie, nechcem diskutova\u0165 o pravdivosti tohto ukazovate\u013ea. Chcem upozorni\u0165 na nie\u010do in\u00e9 (tento fakt). Defl\u00e1cia tu pod\u013ea spotrebite\u013eov nie je. Vidia sk\u00f4r infl\u00e1ciu, a\u00a0v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina sk\u00f4r vy\u0161\u0161iu ako ni\u017e\u0161iu. Pri \u00favah\u00e1ch o\u00a0d\u00f4sledkoch toto je absol\u00fatne \u0165a\u017eiskov\u00fd prvok. Defl\u00e1cia je \u0161kodliv\u00e1 predov\u0161etk\u00fdm v zmene spr\u00e1vania ekonomick\u00fdch subjektov o\u010dak\u00e1vaj\u00facich pokles cien. Dom\u00e1cnosti odkladaj\u00fa spotrebu, firmy nezvy\u0161uj\u00fa platy zamestnancom, odkladaj\u00fa invest\u00edcie a zni\u017euj\u00fa stavy&#8230; vl\u00e1da zni\u017euje v\u00fddavky o\u010dak\u00e1vaj\u00fac recesiu&#8230; Ni\u010d z\u00a0toho sa nedeje. Ani jedna z mo\u017enosti, ktor\u00e9 vych\u00e1dzaj\u00fa z ob\u00e1v z\u00a0defl\u00e1cie. Hosana. Toto je ur\u010dite d\u00f4vodom na oslavu. A\u00a0je tu \u010das na ot\u00e1zku: \u010co bude \u010falej, ako bude t\u00e1to p\u00e1rty pokra\u010dova\u0165?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"sk-SK\">Teoreticky by defl\u00e1cia mala prinies\u0165 skazu, ak ju ekonomick\u00e9 subjekty za\u010dn\u00fa predpoklada\u0165 a o\u010dak\u00e1va\u0165. Netreba viac re\u010d\u00ed, mali by sme sa b\u00e1\u0165. A \u010do ak tu bude defl\u00e1cia a subjekty bud\u00fa kona\u0165, akoby boli v\u00a0ekonomike, kde ceny rast\u00fa? T\u00e9ma pre ekonomick\u00fd v\u00fdskum a modelovanie na superpo\u010d\u00edta\u010di. Ale ak nechceme na v\u00fdsledok \u010daka\u0165 roky, zamyslime sa. Klesaj\u00face ceny umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00fa zvy\u0161ova\u0165 spotrebu, rast\u00faca spotreba zvy\u0161uje optimizmus, optimizmus \u017eenie spotrebu. N\u00edzke \u00farokov\u00e9 sadzby zvy\u0161uj\u00fa spotrebu&#8230; R\u00fdchla \u00favaha ma vedie k prekvapuj\u00facemu poh\u013eadu. Nach\u00e1dzame sa v\u00a0prostred\u00ed, kde s\u00fabe\u017ene p\u00f4sob\u00ed viac faktorov stimuluj\u00facich ekonomick\u00fd rast. Faktorov, ktor\u00e9 sa teoreticky navz\u00e1jom vylu\u010duj\u00fa. Teda aj d\u00f4sledky by mali by\u0165 prekvapuj\u00face. \u010co n\u00e1s \u010dak\u00e1?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"sk-SK\">Aj ke\u010f to neznie pravdepodobne, sk\u00f4r zr\u00fdchlenie ekonomick\u00e9ho rastu ako jeho spomalenie. R\u00fdchlej\u0161\u00ed pokles nezamestnanosti ako ukazuj\u00fa krivky extrapoluj\u00face predo\u0161l\u00fd v\u00fdvoj a&#8230; n\u00e1rast riz\u00edk. Niekde sa to po \u010dase m\u00f4\u017ee (ale nemus\u00ed) prejavi\u0165. Mo\u017eno budeme pr\u00ednosno-ekonomicky-slep\u00ed&#8230; dlhodobo. Rizikom m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 dramatick\u00fd rast ceny niektor\u00e9ho z d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00fdch akt\u00edv, kde dopyt vy\u017eenie cenu skokovo hore (napr. nehnute\u013enosti?).\u00a0Bude ve\u013emi zauj\u00edmav\u00e9 sledova\u0165 realitu defl\u00e1cie pri ne\u0161tandardn\u00fdch o\u010dak\u00e1vaniach z nej plyn\u00facich a mo\u017eno prep\u00ed\u0161eme niektor\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 pou\u010dky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p> <span lang=\"sk-SK\">Ak sa rozhodnete spr\u00e1va\u0165 \u0161tandardne, pribrzd\u00edte spotrebu a priprav\u00edte sa na rizik\u00e1 alebo si budete u\u017e\u00edva\u0165 konjunkt\u00faru, nekon\u00e1te iracion\u00e1lne. Toto je \u013eahk\u00e1 vo\u013eba. Vyberte si&#8230;<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V\u00a0j\u00fali 2016 miera medziro\u010dnej infl\u00e1cie v \u00fahrne dosiahla hodnotu -0,9\u00a0%. To\u013eko \u0160tatistick\u00fd \u00farad SR. Ceny u n\u00e1s ner\u00e1stli od konca roka 2013. Tret\u00ed rok tu<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-archiv","two-columns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5812","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5812"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5812\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5812"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5812"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5812"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}