{"id":5866,"date":"2017-05-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2017-05-15T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/uncategorized\/preco-a-kedy-nastane-ropny-sok\/"},"modified":"2017-05-16T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2017-05-15T23:00:00","slug":"preco-a-kedy-nastane-ropny-sok","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/archiv\/preco-a-kedy-nastane-ropny-sok\/","title":{"rendered":"Why and when will an oil shock occur?"},"content":{"rendered":"

V\u00a0mojom predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facom \u010dl\u00e1nku zo septembra 2016\u00a0som predstavil ako vid\u00edm n\u00e1stup elektromobilov. R\u00e1d by som teraz na neho nadviazal a\u00a0predstavil v\u00edziu toho, ak\u00e9 d\u00f4sledky to bude ma\u0165 pre spolo\u010dnos\u0165.<\/h3>\n

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V\u0161etci vieme, \u017ee aktu\u00e1lna \u0165a\u017eba ropy je na maxim\u00e1ch. \u0164a\u017e\u00ed sa na s\u00fa\u0161i, na mori a\u00a0v\u010faka najnov\u0161\u00edm technol\u00f3gi\u00e1m aj z\u00a0bridl\u00edc a\u00a0pieskov. Takisto vieme, \u017ee neust\u00e1lym \u010derpan\u00edm a\u00a0spotrebou ropy nen\u00e1vratne m\u00ed\u0148ame\u00a0vz\u00e1cne suroviny. V neposlednom rade v\u0161ak vieme, \u017ee tradi\u010dn\u00e9 fos\u00edlne paliv\u00e1 zne\u010dis\u0165uj\u00fa plan\u00e9tu.<\/p>\n

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Ako pr\u00edde\u00a0k\u00a0zmen\u00e1m?<\/strong><\/p>\n

V s\u00fa\u010dasnosti je menej ako jedno\u00a0percento vozidiel \u00a0hybridn\u00fdch alebo plne elektrick\u00fdch, zvy\u0161n\u00fdch 99\u00a0percent pou\u017e\u00edva na spa\u013eovanie fos\u00edlne paliv\u00e1. Toto \u010d\u00edslo s prihliadnut\u00edm\u00a0na dopyt po preprave a\u00a0po\u010dte automobilov (\u010c\u00edna a\u00a0India) ostane\u00a0zachovan\u00e9 a\u017e do roku 2040.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0hist\u00f3rii \u013eudstva v\u017edy pri nov\u00e1torskej technologickej novinke ist\u00fd \u010das trvalo, k\u00fdm sa dosiahla \u00farove\u0148 nas\u00fdtenia trhu<\/strong>. Pr\u00edkladom je farebn\u00fd\u00a0telev\u00edzor, od vyn\u00e1jdenia po nas\u00fdtenie mu to trvalo a\u017e 30 rokov (1960-1990).<\/p>\n

N\u00e1stup elektrick\u00fdch automobilov m\u00e1 ove\u013ea zlo\u017eitej\u0161\u00ed proces, ako be\u017ene dostupn\u00e9 zariadenia, kde nie je probl\u00e9m s\u00a0ich distrib\u00faciou.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Za najd\u00f4le\u017eitej\u0161ie faktory zodpovedn\u00fdmi\u00a0za roz\u0161\u00edrenie elektrick\u00fdch automobilov pova\u017eujem:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2022 cenu;
\n\u2022\u00a0ve\u013ekos\u0165;
\n\u2022 dojazd 300\u00a0– 400 kilometrov;
\n\u2022 mo\u017enosti dob\u00edjania v\u00a0\u010dase porovnate\u013enom s\u00a0konven\u010dn\u00fdmi\u00a0automobilmi;<\/p>\n

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V\u00a0roku 2020 pl\u00e1nuje v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina ve\u013ek\u00fdch v\u00fdrobcov uvedenie elektromobilov\u00a0v\u00a0cen\u00e1ch od 30-tis\u00edc\u00a0eur (Nissan, Renault, Tesla, GM). EV sa tak stan\u00fa dostupn\u00e9 pre v\u00e4\u010d\u0161inu \u013eud\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00facich automobil na prepravu. Ostatn\u00e9 automobilky s\u00fa vo v\u00fdvoji pozadu, av\u0161ak aktu\u00e1lne mas\u00edvne investuj\u00fa do rozvoja, aby svoj sklz dohnali \u010d\u00edm sk\u00f4r.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n Nab\u00edjac\u00ed konektor v elektromobile zna\u010dky Nissan\n

\u25ba Pre\u010d\u00edtajte si aj:\u00a0\u010co br\u00e1ni mas\u00edvnemu pou\u017eitiu elektromobilov?\u00a0\u25c4<\/strong><\/p>\n

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K\u00a0n\u00e1stupu elektromobilov v\u00a0mas\u00edvnom meradle pr\u00edde v\u00a0rokoch 2025\u00a0a\u017e 2035 a\u00a0\u00a0nas\u00fdtenie trhu o\u010dak\u00e1vame okolo roku 2075. V\u00a0tom istom obdob\u00ed m\u00f4\u017eeme postupne vidie\u0165 \u00fastup od konven\u010dn\u00fdch automobilov k\u00a0EV. Tento fakt povedie k\u00a0zn\u00ed\u017eeniu cien pal\u00edv, o ktor\u00e9 bude ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1ujem. Pr\u00edde k\u00a0prudk\u00e9mu poklesu cien pal\u00edv, \u010do ovplyvn\u00ed cel\u00fa ekonomiku.<\/p>\n

V\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina kr\u00edz vznikala na \u00farovni ne\u00famernosti ponuky a\u00a0dopytu, ktor\u00fd je v\u017edy v\u00a0krehkej rovnov\u00e1he. Pr\u00e1ve elektromobily\u00a0t\u00fato rovnov\u00e1hu rozkol\u00ed\u0161u. O\u010dak\u00e1vame, \u017ee k\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u00e9mu ropn\u00e9mu \u0161oku pr\u00edde v\u00a0obdob\u00ed rokov 2020\u00a0a\u017e 23, teda v \u010dase, ke\u010f v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina v\u00fdrobcov nabehne na mas\u00edvnu v\u00fdrobu elektromobilov.<\/p>\n

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Pr\u00edklad:<\/strong> sk\u00fasme si predstavi\u0165, \u017ee jedno konven\u010dn\u00e9 vozidlo spotrebuje ro\u010dne 15 barelov ropy (\u010do je 42 US gal\u00f3nov, \u010di\u017ee 155 litrov) a\u00a0sk\u00fasme vyn\u00e1sobi\u0165 o\u00a0ko\u013eko menej barelov bude dopyt na trhu v\u00a0s\u00favislosti s\u00a0n\u00e1rastom EV.<\/p>\n

Pod\u013ea Jato Dynamics bude celkovo na cest\u00e1ch v\u00a0roku 2020 5,5 mili\u00f3nov EV. Zn\u00ed\u017ei sa dopyt po rope v\u00a0objeme 852 mili\u00f3nov\u00a0litrov, \u010do je\u00a0 5,5 mili\u00f3nov\u00a0barelov. V tom \u010dase bude ro\u010dn\u00e1 produkcia okolo 100 mili\u00f3nov barelov, \u010do bude predstavova\u0165 5,5% ro\u010dnej spotreby ropy.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

V roku\u00a02040 sa predpoklad\u00e1, \u017ee 50\u00a0percent vyroben\u00fdch automobilov bude pr\u00e1ve EV. Z toho bud\u00fa ma\u0165 najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed podiel nasledovn\u00ed v\u00fdrobcovia:<\/p>\n

Nissan Renault \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a02,0 mil.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Tesla \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 0,5 mil.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Ostatn\u00ed (30 v\u00fdrobcov) \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a02,5 mil.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bude ve\u013emi d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9, aby sa na transform\u00e1ciu dopravy vedeli krajiny \u010do najlep\u0161ie pripravi\u0165. Formou podpory, nak\u00fapu elektromobilov a\u017e po dot\u00e1cie na uzatv\u00e1ranie fabr\u00edk na konven\u010dn\u00e9 paliv\u00e1 a\u017e po v\u00fdkup vozidiel a\u00a0obmenu za EV. Rizikom je hlavne pojem, automobil = majetok. Automobil je dnes na 3. prie\u010dke v\u00a0pon\u00edman\u00ed majetku obyvate\u013estva. Strata tejto hodnoty m\u00f4\u017ee uvies\u0165 \u013eud\u00ed a z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u00a0aj svet do ve\u013emi zlo\u017eitej situ\u00e1cie, ktor\u00fa bude ve\u013emi \u0165a\u017ek\u00e9 a n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9 upokoji\u0165.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bloomberg news: Here’s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis – Bloomberg<\/p>\n

Autocar Professional<\/p>\n

Jato Dynamics<\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V\u00a0mojom predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facom \u010dl\u00e1nku zo septembra 2016\u00a0som predstavil ako vid\u00edm n\u00e1stup elektromobilov. R\u00e1d by som teraz na neho nadviazal a\u00a0predstavil v\u00edziu toho, ak\u00e9 d\u00f4sledky to bude<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-archiv","two-columns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5866","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5866"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5866\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}