{"id":5874,"date":"2017-06-07T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2017-06-06T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/uncategorized\/automobilovy-priemysel-smeruje-k-radikalnej-transformacii\/"},"modified":"2017-06-07T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2017-06-06T23:00:00","slug":"automobilovy-priemysel-smeruje-k-radikalnej-transformacii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/archiv\/automobilovy-priemysel-smeruje-k-radikalnej-transformacii\/","title":{"rendered":"The automotive industry is heading for a radical transformation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Proces transform\u00e1cie automobilov\u00e9ho sektoru u\u017e za\u010dal. Ak by sme si pozreli fotku 5th Avenue v roku 1905, videli by sme na nej mno\u017estvo kon\u00ed a vozov, ak by sme ju porovnali s fotkou z roku 1913, ulice by boli zaplnen\u00e9 automobilmi.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n 5th Avenue (NY) v roku 1903 a 1913. Desa\u0165 rokov sta\u010dilo na \u00fapln\u00fa zmenu dopravy v meste. Zdroj: Wikimedia Commons\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Takto prich\u00e1dza k transform\u00e1ci\u00e1m, ke\u010f jeden sektor sa nahrad\u00ed in\u00fdm. Mno\u017estvo existuj\u00facich hr\u00e1\u010dov zanikne a vznikaj\u00fa nov\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Predpoklad\u00e1 sa, \u017ee v\u00fdroba elektromobilov v roku 2023 dosiahne glob\u00e1lne 4 mili\u00f3ny \u010do bude znamena\u0165 3,5% podiel na celkovej produkcii automobilov. V\u00fdrobn\u00e9 linky, ktor\u00e9 za\u010dn\u00fa v tomto obdob\u00ed dod\u00e1va\u0165 EV, bud\u00fa len na za\u010diatku ve\u013ek\u00e9ho rastu. Do roku 2040 bud\u00fa tvori\u0165 EV a\u017e 50% celkov\u00e9ho objemu vyroben\u00fdch dopravn\u00fdch prostriedkov.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>U\u017e dnes vieme, \u017ee:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>a) efektivita konven\u010dn\u00fdch spa\u013eovac\u00edch motorov dosahuje maximum 21% v porovnan\u00ed s EV, kde sa dosahuje a\u017e 95%.<br \/>\nb) konven\u010dn\u00e9 vozidl\u00e1 maj\u00fa a\u017e 2000 pohybov\u00fdch \u010dasti v r\u00e1mci kon\u0161trukcie, EV maj\u00fa 20, \u010do je len 1% pri porovnan\u00ed s dopravn\u00fdmi prostriedkami, ktor\u00e9 dnes pou\u017e\u00edvame (\u010do znamen\u00e1 technick\u00fa nen\u00e1ro\u010dnos\u0165 na \u00fadr\u017ebu a opravy a zn\u00ed\u017eenie n\u00e1kladov).<br \/>\nc) v\u00fdrobn\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na EV bud\u00fa ni\u017e\u0161ie vzh\u013eadom na nen\u00e1ro\u010dnos\u0165 v\u00fdroby oproti automobilom. Cena a kapacita bat\u00e9ri\u00ed pre EV pri masovej v\u00fdrobe (r.2020 za\u010diatok v\u00fdroby Gigafactory at\u010f.) sp\u00f4sob\u00ed zn\u00ed\u017eenie cien na \u00farove\u0148 konven\u010dn\u00fdch automobilov.<br \/>\nd) v\u00fdkon EV vozidiel pri cene \u0161tandardn\u00fdch automobilov bude na \u00farovni super\u0161portov (pr\u00edklad Tesla P90 vs. Porsche Carrera GT)<br \/>\ne) transform\u00e1cia v\u00fdroby prepravn\u00fdch prostriedkov zasiahne cel\u00fd sektor: v\u00fdrobu EV ohl\u00e1sili v\u0161etky ve\u013ek\u00e9 automobilky, \u010do je v\u0161ak zauj\u00edmav\u00e9, aj v\u00fdrobcovia elektroniky ako Apple, Foxconn, &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ako n\u00e1s uveden\u00e1 zmena pozit\u00edvne ovplyvn\u00ed:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>cena EV v\u00fdrazne klesne pod \u00farove\u0148 konven\u010dn\u00fdch automobilov klesne produkcia sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plynov, budeme \u017ei\u0165 v zdrav\u0161om prostred\u00ed.<\/li>\n<li>EV bude bat\u00e9riou, ktor\u00fa vieme nie len nabi\u0165 ale pou\u017ei\u0165 ako zdroj energie ke\u010f pr\u00eddeme domov a budeme m\u00f4c\u0165 vyu\u017ei\u0165 energiu na prev\u00e1dzku svojho obydlia (budeme vyu\u017e\u00edva\u0165 alternat\u00edvne nab\u00edjanie tak, \u017ee no\u010dn\u00fd a denn\u00fd re\u017eim kedy je cena \u0161tandardn\u00fdch dod\u00e1van\u00fdch energi\u00ed rozdielna, budeme vedie\u0165 optimalizova\u0165 a kombinova\u0165 so sol\u00e1rnymi panelmi na aute alebo v pr\u00edbytku).<\/li>\n<li>elektronick\u00fd priemysel bude najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed subdod\u00e1vate\u013e automobilov\u00e9ho priemyslu pre EV<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ak\u00e9 rizika z toho plyn\u00fa?<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>hodnota konven\u010dn\u00fdch automobilov klesne a\u017e na hodnoty bl\u00edzke 0 &#8211; nebude ich kde preda\u0165<\/li>\n<li>spr\u00edsnia sa ekologick\u00e9 pravidl\u00e1 na prev\u00e1dzku automobilov (zak\u00e1\u017ee sa vstup \u00e1ut so spa\u013eovac\u00edmi motormi do miest..)<\/li>\n<li>Tak ako dnes vyspel\u00e9 krajiny pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00fa vyspel\u00e9 technol\u00f3gie a tie menej rozvinut\u00e9 krajiny ich nakupuj\u00fa pou\u017eit\u00e9, tak sa pou\u017eit\u00e9 automobily pres\u00favaj\u00fa z jednej viac rozvinutej krajiny do tej, kde obyvate\u013estvo nem\u00e1 \u0161ancu nak\u00fapi\u0165 najnov\u0161ie technologick\u00e9 novinky.<\/li>\n<li>postupn\u00fd z\u00e1nik konven\u010dn\u00fdch \u010derpac\u00edch stan\u00edc, rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed, v\u00fdrobcov olejov a maz\u00edv.<\/li>\n<li>zanikn\u00fa d\u00edlersk\u00e9 siete a servisn\u00e9 stredisk\u00e1 v s\u00fa\u010dasnej podobe (nebude nutn\u00e9 robi\u0165 v\u00fdmeny oleja motora a prevodovky, spojky, pravideln\u00e9 garan\u010dn\u00e9 opravy&#8230;).<\/li>\n<li>automobilky, ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa dnes na konci technologick\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoja nestihn\u00fa tento v\u00fdznamn\u00fd skok dosiahnu\u0165 a o p\u00e1r rokov prestan\u00fa mnoh\u00e9 z nich ako ich pozn\u00e1me existova\u0165.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Segmenty, ktor\u00e9 zaznamenaj\u00fa ve\u013ek\u00e9 straty alebo \u00fapln\u00e9 zanikn\u00fa:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>banky financuj\u00face automobily, leasingov\u00e9 spolo\u010dnosti, s\u00fakromn\u00e9 osoby, zaznamenaj\u00fa obrovsk\u00e9 straty v zostatkov\u00fdch cen\u00e1ch<\/li>\n<li>prepad vo v\u00fdrobe, distrib\u00facii pohonn\u00fdch hm\u00f4t a olejov sp\u00f4sob\u00ed prepad sektoru ako tak\u00e9ho.<\/li>\n<li>z\u00e1nik \u010derpac\u00edch stan\u00edc, nab\u00edjanie budeme ma\u0165 v\u0161ade, v obchodn\u00fdch centr\u00e1ch, induk\u010dn\u00e9 nab\u00edjanie n\u00e1m umo\u017en\u00ed nab\u00edja\u0165 bez toho, aby sme sa ob\u0165a\u017eovali a \u010dakali dlh\u0161ie ako 15min.<\/li>\n<li>subdod\u00e1vatelia automobilov\u00e9ho priemyslu v po\u010dte ako ich m\u00e1me dnes sa v\u00fdrazne zredukuj\u00fa, nebude nutn\u00e9 tak\u00e9 mno\u017estvo s\u00fa\u010diastok do EV.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u010co tieto fakty bud\u00fa znamena\u0165 pre glob\u00e1lnu ekonomiku, ak\u00e9 n\u00e1sledky to sp\u00f4sob\u00ed?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Z\u00e1kladom pochopenia je, \u010do pre n\u00e1s dnes automobil znamen\u00e1. Automobil je v prvom rade prepravn\u00fd prostriedok, ktor\u00fdm prepravujeme osoby a tovar. Je s\u00fa\u010das\u0165ou majetku, \u010di u\u017e \u010dloveka alebo nejakej spolo\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Automobil vn\u00edmame ako s\u00fa\u010das\u0165 n\u00e1\u0161ho majetku. V na\u0161om pon\u00edman\u00ed zast\u00e1va hne\u010f po nehnute\u013enosti 2. prie\u010dku. Ka\u017ed\u00fd vie, \u017ee automobil m\u00e1 klesaj\u00facu hodnotu z\u00e1visl\u00fa na veku a najazden\u00fdch km, av\u0161ak st\u00e1le m\u00e1 hodnotu. \u010co sa stane, ke\u010f v\u00fdroba EV dosiahne tak\u00fd vysok\u00fd prvok efektivity, \u017ee bud\u00fa lep\u0161ie, ekologickej\u0161ie a la\u010dnej\u0161ie ako konven\u010dn\u00e9 automobily? Nebude ich kde pou\u017ei\u0165 alebo preda\u0165? Pam\u00e4tajme na fakt, \u017ee v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti jazd\u00ed na celom svete viac ako 1,2 mld. konven\u010dn\u00fdch automobilov. Vo v\u00fdrobe a slu\u017eb\u00e1ch s t\u00fdm spojen\u00fdch je zamestnan\u00fdch a\u017e 350 mili\u00f3nov \u013eud\u00ed. Pri transform\u00e1cii d\u00f4jde k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu zn\u00ed\u017eeniu potu \u013eud\u00ed, ktor\u00ed v tomto sektore bud\u00fa pracova\u0165.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Elektrick\u00e1 energia ako zdroj pohonn\u00fdch hm\u00f4t pre EV a jej cena<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Cena energi\u00ed bude neust\u00e1le klesa\u0165, bude to s\u00favisie\u0165 s efektivitou syst\u00e9mov, ktor\u00e9 ju bud\u00fa z\u00edskava\u0165. Hlavn\u00fdm zdrojom energie bud\u00fa obnovite\u013en\u00e9 zdroje a sol\u00e1rne panely. Bat\u00e9rie novej gener\u00e1cie n\u00e1m umo\u017enia skladova\u0165 energiu a t\u00e1 t\u00fdm p\u00e1dom bude v\u00fdrazne cenovo klesa\u0165.<br \/>\nKa\u017ed\u00e1 dom\u00e1cnos\u0165 si bude vyr\u00e1ba\u0165 energiu sama pre seba bez potreby ma\u0165 energiu, ktor\u00fa im dod\u00e1 vzdialen\u00e1 elektr\u00e1re\u0148. Efekt\u00edvnos\u0165 takejto energie bude bl\u00edzka 100% v porovnan\u00ed s distrib\u00faciou, ktor\u00e1 m\u00e1 pri prenose ve\u013emi ve\u013ek\u00e9 straty.<\/p>\n<p>Ako sa k uvedenej \u0161t\u00fadii m\u00f4\u017eeme postavi\u0165, ako pred\u00eds\u0165 probl\u00e9mom, ktor\u00e9 sp\u00f4sob\u00ed. D\u00f4le\u017eit\u00fdm aspektom bude spr\u00e1vne na\u010dasovanie. Spr\u00e1vny vyber dod\u00e1vate\u013ea a zna\u010dky, ktor\u00fa bude pou\u017e\u00edva\u0165.<\/p>\n<p>Podpora vl\u00e1d jednotliv\u00fdch kraj\u00edn, ktor\u00e1 by mala zmierni\u0165 n\u00e1sledky transform\u00e1cie a prechod \u013eud\u00ed do in\u00fdch sektorov. Pomoc pri zmene automobilov na EV formou podpory pr\u00edpadne v\u00fdkupov, aby nedo\u0161lo k soci\u00e1lnym nepokojom.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Zdroj: Tony Seba: The Electric vehicle disruption -End of oil 2030<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Proces transform\u00e1cie automobilov\u00e9ho sektoru u\u017e za\u010dal. Ak by sme si pozreli fotku 5th Avenue v roku 1905, videli by sme na nej mno\u017estvo kon\u00ed a<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5874","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-archiv","two-columns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5874","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5874"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5874\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5874"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5874"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5874"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}