{"id":6065,"date":"2019-01-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2019-01-03T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/uncategorized\/caka-nas-chaos\/"},"modified":"2019-01-04T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2019-01-03T23:00:00","slug":"caka-nas-chaos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/archiv\/caka-nas-chaos\/","title":{"rendered":"Are we in for chaos?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3>V akom stave je aktu\u00e1lny predaj automobilov vo svete?<\/h3>\n<p>Prv\u00fd automobil uzrel sveta u\u017e pred 133 rokmi, dnes ich na svete jazd\u00ed viac ako 1,3mld. Ro\u010dn\u00fd predaj je na \u00farovni 90mil (\u00fadaje 2017). Za posledn\u00fdch 10 rokov predaj \u00e1ut z roka na rok st\u00fapa, ro\u010dn\u00fd rast s\u00fa +4,1% v porovnan\u00ed rastu po\u010dtu obyvate\u013estva, \u010do je len ro\u010dne + 1,2%.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Toto s\u00fa 3 najd\u00f4le\u017eitej\u0161ie trhy, kde automobilky umiest\u0148uj\u00fa svoju produkciu a po\u010det predan\u00fdch automobilov (predajn\u00e9 \u010d\u00edsla za r. 2017):<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>\u010c\u00edna, 24 mil.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>USA, 17 mil.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Eur\u00f3pa, 15 mil.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Tieto tri trhy predali spolu viac ako 60% celkov\u00e9ho predaja automobilov vo svete. Najr\u00fdchlej\u0161ie rast\u00facim trhom je \u010c\u00edna, kde rast predaja sko\u010dil z 2,3 mili\u00f3nov v roku 2013 na 24 mili\u00f3nov v roku 2017. V roku 2013 sa stala \u010c\u00edna najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edm trhom.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Dosahujeme hranicu kapacitn\u00e9ho vrcholu?<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Do roku 2030<\/strong> bude \u017ei\u0165 v mestsk\u00fdch aglomer\u00e1ci\u00e1ch viac ako 85% \u013eud\u00ed, v tom istom roku glob\u00e1lny predaj dosiahne svoj vrchol, a to <strong>133 mili\u00f3nov automobilov<\/strong>. <strong>Doprava je k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e1 na transport pracovnej sily a distrib\u00faciu tovarov<\/strong>. Av\u0161ak ve\u013ek\u00e9 priemyseln\u00e9 aglomer\u00e1cie dosahuj\u00fa maxim\u00e1 svojich kapac\u00edt, plynulos\u0165 dopravy dost\u00e1va zabra\u0165. Mest\u00e1 rie\u0161ia dennodenne probl\u00e9my s\u00favisiace s preplnenos\u0165ou ciest a nedostatkom parkovania.<\/p>\n<p>Preto u\u017e dnes doch\u00e1dza k legislat\u00edvnym \u00faprav\u00e1m, ako s\u00fa:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ekologick\u00e9 normy (emisie CO2) (rast emisi\u00ed medzi rokmi 1999 -2035 je pri o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00ed X 1,75);<\/li>\n<li>obmedzenia dopravy v mest\u00e1ch;<\/li>\n<li>vyl\u00fa\u010denie vozidiel na fos\u00edlne paliv\u00e1 z miest;<\/li>\n<li>za\u0165a\u017eovanie vstupu \u00e1ut do miest \u0161peci\u00e1lnymi da\u0148ami a poplatkami;<\/li>\n<li>at\u010f&#8230;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Automobilky neust\u00e1le chrlia <strong>nov\u00e9 automobily<\/strong>, ale tie u\u017e <strong>v niektor\u00fdch mest\u00e1ch nie je mo\u017en\u00e9 prihl\u00e1si\u0165<\/strong> a treba \u010daka\u0165 na v\u00fdhru v lot\u00e9rii na z\u00edskanie E\u010cV. Pr\u00edpadne inde sa zase mus\u00ed bud\u00faci majite\u013e preuk\u00e1za\u0165 parkovac\u00edm miestom a <strong>a\u017e na to mu mesto povol\u00ed n\u00e1kup automobilu<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>V s\u00favislosti s t\u00fdmito a in\u00fdmi faktami doch\u00e1dza k prehodnoteniu u\u017e\u00edvania automobilov. Automobil je v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti vyu\u017e\u00edvan\u00fd iba na 5% svojho \u010dasov\u00e9ho fondu.<\/p>\n<p>V\u0161etky tieto fakty n\u00fatia v\u00fdrobcov, prenaj\u00edmate\u013eov, ako aj majite\u013eov automobilov h\u013eada\u0165 rie\u0161enia, ako uveden\u00fa situ\u00e1ciu rie\u0161i\u0165.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Ak\u00e9 zmeny a kedy n\u00e1s \u010dakaj\u00fa?<\/h3>\n<p>Cel\u00e1 t\u00e1to situ\u00e1cia smeruje k nasledovn\u00fdm rie\u0161eniam, ktor\u00e9 vytvoria chaos na trhu s automobilmi.<\/p>\n<p>V prvom rade sme bl\u00edzko obdobia, kedy glob\u00e1lna produkcia automobilov dosiahne svoj vrchol. Na rozvinut\u00fdch trhoch tento okamih sa o\u010dak\u00e1va v rozmedz\u00ed rokov 2030 a\u017e 2035. D\u00f4vodom tohto bude n\u00e1stup nasledovn\u00fdch zmien:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>a) Technologick\u00e9 zmeny funk\u010dnosti automobilu:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>EV elektrick\u00fdch automobilov (v r.2040 bude glob\u00e1lna produkcia na \u00farovni 35%)<\/li>\n<li>AV auton\u00f3mnych automobilov (v r.2040 bude 14% plne samo jazdiacich)<\/li>\n<li>internet v automobile a mo\u017enosti z\u00e1bavy v \u0148om (entertainmentu)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>b) slu\u017eby, ktor\u00e9 ovl\u00e1dnu prepravu automobilov a zmenia sp\u00f4sob nakladania s nimi<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ride sharingu<\/li>\n<li>car sharingu<\/li>\n<li>pren\u00e1jmu automobilov<\/li>\n<li>operat\u00edvny leasing<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Zmena v ch\u00e1pan\u00ed \u00fa\u010delu automobilu ako aj jeho vy\u0161\u0161ia pou\u017eite\u013enos\u0165 bud\u00fa ma\u0165 za n\u00e1sledok zn\u00ed\u017eenie potrieb na n\u00e1kup \u010fal\u0161\u00edch nov\u00fdch automobilov. M\u00e1me za to, \u017ee <strong>pokles n\u00e1kupu ovplyvn\u00ed glob\u00e1lny predaj s o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00fdm v\u00fdkyvom v obdob\u00ed rokov 2030-2050<\/strong> a dosiahne a\u017e 30% glob\u00e1lneho predaja do 5 rokov a 50% do 15 rokov.<\/p>\n<p><strong>S\u00fakromn\u00e9 vlastn\u00edctvo automobilu bude postupne nahraden\u00e9<\/strong> vzh\u013eadom na neefektivitu prev\u00e1dzky jedinca verzus ve\u013ek\u00e9ho glob\u00e1lneho poskytovate\u013ea slu\u017eieb. Tak isto nebude komu jazden\u00e9 aut\u00e1 mo\u017en\u00e9 preda\u0165, nako\u013eko v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina popul\u00e1cie bude aut\u00e1 vn\u00edma\u0165 ako slu\u017ebu a nie majetok.<\/p>\n<p>Ve\u013ek\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00e9 spolo\u010dnosti, ktor\u00e9 na tieto zmeny nebud\u00fa pripraven\u00e9, <strong>ovl\u00e1dne chaos a panika, \u010do robi\u0165 s jazden\u00fdmi pou\u017eit\u00fdmi automobilmi<\/strong>. Niektor\u00e9 ho za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00fa \u00fa\u017e dnes. <strong>Predaj jazden\u00fdch \u00e1ut n\u00edzkopr\u00edjmov\u00fdm skupin\u00e1m<\/strong>, ako ho pozn\u00e1me dnes,<strong> u\u017e nebude mo\u017en\u00fd<\/strong>, nako\u013eko slu\u017eby spolo\u010dnosti zameriavaj\u00facich sa na slu\u017eby dodania, slu\u017eby prepravy a pren\u00e1jmu bud\u00fa poskytova\u0165 r\u00f4zne \u00farovne slu\u017eieb za ve\u013emi v\u00fdhodn\u00fdch podmienok z d\u00f4vodu vysokej efektivity a trhov\u00e9ho postavenia, ktor\u00e9 im situ\u00e1cia na trhu dovol\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Prepad cien jazden\u00fdch automobilov<\/strong> sp\u00f4sob\u00ed obrovsk\u00e1 koncentr\u00e1cia n\u00e1kupu automobilov pr\u00e1ve t\u00fdmito spolo\u010dnos\u0165ami a ich silou, ktor\u00fa vo\u010di trhu bud\u00fa ma\u0165. V roku 2017 bol podiel t\u00fdchto spolo\u010dnost\u00ed na glob\u00e1lnom predaji automobilov a\u017e 35%.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Ako sa s t\u00fdm vyrovna\u0165?<\/h3>\n<p>Pod\u013ea m\u00f4jho n\u00e1zoru jedin\u00fdm sp\u00f4sobom, ako by\u0165 pripraven\u00fd na uveden\u00e9 zmeny, je postupne meni\u0165 flotily z fixn\u00e9ho a dlhodob\u00e9ho majetku na kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd majetok, pr\u00edpadne dod\u00e1vate\u013esky dodan\u00e9 slu\u017eby, kde za n\u00e1kup a predaj zodpoved\u00e1 spolo\u010dnos\u0165, ktor\u00e1 sa uvedenou slu\u017ebou \u017eiv\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>\u010ealej je nutn\u00e9 vn\u00edma\u0165, \u017ee bud\u00faci vozov\u00fd park bude zameran\u00fd na EV, PHEV a hybridn\u00e9 vozidl\u00e1. U\u017e dnes pri n\u00e1kupe \u00e1ut do rodiny \u010di spolo\u010dnosti treba na to myslie\u0165. \u010eal\u0161\u00ed predaj bude v bud\u00facnosti probl\u00e9mom, nako\u013eko n\u00e1kup jazden\u00fdch \u00e1ut bude klesa\u0165 z d\u00f4vodu n\u00e1kupu slu\u017eieb namiesto vlastn\u00edctva ako majetku.<\/p>\n<p>Jedine trhy, ktor\u00e9 e\u0161te v uvedenom obdob\u00ed p\u00f4jdu pod\u013ea aktu\u00e1lneho nastavenia, bud\u00fa India a Afrika, kde rast predaja bude st\u00e1le pretrv\u00e1va\u0165 vzh\u013eadom na nenas\u00fdtenos\u0165 z minul\u00e9ho obdobia.<\/p>\n<p>Ve\u013ek\u00fdmi tlakom na zmeny bude zn\u00ed\u017eenie n\u00e1kladov na vlastn\u00edctvo a \u010diasto\u010dn\u00e9ho u\u017e\u00edvania, <strong>tlak na cenu odstr\u00e1ni dlhodob\u00e9 vlastn\u00edctvo<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><em>Sources:<br \/>\n<\/em><em>Paul Barter,poradca pre dopravu: Today\u2019s Cars Are Parked 95% of the Time<br \/>\n<\/em><em>Goldman Sachs:Study of the Cars 2025<br \/>\n<\/em><em>McKInsey company:Automotive revolution perspective towards 2030<br \/>\n<\/em><em>Financial service company Credit Suisee:Autonomous cars will kill new car sales 2030<br \/>\n<\/em><em>Euromonitor International:Global light vehicle sales forecast exceed 100 milion units in 2019<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V akom stave je aktu\u00e1lny predaj automobilov vo svete? Prv\u00fd automobil uzrel sveta u\u017e pred 133 rokmi, dnes ich na svete jazd\u00ed viac ako 1,3mld.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-archiv","two-columns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6065","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6065"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6065\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6065"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6065"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6065"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}