{"id":6270,"date":"2019-09-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2019-09-03T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/uncategorized\/je-dokonane-dlh-je-bezcenny\/"},"modified":"2019-09-04T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2019-09-03T23:00:00","slug":"je-dokonane-dlh-je-bezcenny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/archiv\/je-dokonane-dlh-je-bezcenny\/","title":{"rendered":"Je dokonan\u00e9… Dlh je bezcenn\u00fd"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tituln\u00e1 fotografia: n\u00edzke \u00faroky a dostupn\u00e9 p\u00f4\u017ei\u010dky nemusia by\u0165 \u010doskoro samozrejmos\u0165ou<\/em><\/p>\n

Bol by som r\u00e1d, ak by som nemal pravdu, a teda d\u00fafam, \u017ee neza\u010d\u00edna nov\u00e1 doba. Ekonomick\u00e9 re\u00e1lie s\u00fa nieko\u013eko desa\u0165ro\u010d\u00ed (alebo dokonca p\u00e1r storo\u010d\u00ed) podobn\u00e9, ba niektor\u00e9 veci s\u00fa nemenn\u00e9. Za po\u017ei\u010diavanie pe\u0148az\u00ed patr\u00ed verite\u013eovi \u00farok, ako kompenz\u00e1cia za stratu mo\u017enosti s t\u00fdmito zdrojmi dohodnut\u00fa dobu disponova\u0165. Dl\u017en\u00edk plat\u00ed \u00farok za mo\u017enos\u0165 t\u00fdmito (cudz\u00edmi) zdrojmi disponova\u0165 po dohodnut\u00fa dobu. Jasn\u00e9, logick\u00e9, samozrejm\u00e9. Ale u\u017e to neplat\u00ed a m\u00f4\u017ee to ma\u0165 d\u00f4sledky. Nechcem to domyslie\u0165, ale mus\u00edm – o tom je tento pr\u00edspevok.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Nemeck\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1tne dlhopisy s 30-ro\u010dnou splatnos\u0165ou maj\u00fa nulov\u00fd v\u00fdnos. Nemeck\u00e1 vl\u00e1da si vie na 30 rokov po\u017ei\u010da\u0165 zdarma. Poviete si, to je predsa logick\u00e9, Nemecko ma prebytkov\u00fd rozpo\u010det (cca 47 mld EUR za prv\u00fd polrok 2019), teda nie je to \u00faplne „za \u010diarou“. Sn\u00e1\u010f m\u00e1te pravdu. Slovensko v\u0161ak na tom nie je inak, slovensk\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1tne dlhopisy splatn\u00e9 v roku 2033 maj\u00fa v\u00fdnos 0,03% ro\u010dne (\u00fadaj k 29.8.2019).<\/p>\n

A za silne nepochopite\u013en\u00fd je v\u00fdnos talianskeho \u0161t\u00e1tneho dlhopisu s desa\u0165ro\u010dnou splatnos\u0165ou, ktor\u00fd prv\u00fdkr\u00e1t v hist\u00f3ri\u00ed klesol pod 1% (\u00fadaj k 29.8.2019). V\u00a0\u010cesku by povedali \u201eto mi hlava nebere\u201c. Ak si talianska vl\u00e1da vie po\u017ei\u010da\u0165 pri tak\u00fdchto podmienkach, ako je pravdepodobn\u00e9, \u017ee bude rozpo\u010dtovo zodpovedn\u00e1?<\/p>\n

Za Atlantikom klesli v\u00fdnosy rovnako na historick\u00e9 minimum a naviac pod dividendov\u00fd v\u00fdnos firiem z indexu S&P500. To je samo o sebe znepokojuj\u00face, preto\u017ee investovanie do dlhopisov takto str\u00e1ca podstatn\u00fa v\u00fdhodu a vlastne aj zmysel.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dlh prestal ma\u0165 cenu<\/strong>.\u00a0 M\u00f4\u017eete namieta\u0165, \u017ee to predsa nie je ni\u010d nov\u00e9, v Japonsku sa to deje desa\u0165ro\u010dia. Pripus\u0165me, \u017ee po tejto ceste u\u017e niekto kr\u00e1\u010dal, av\u0161ak ot\u00e1zkou je, \u010di to zvl\u00e1dneme rovnako ako krajina vych\u00e1dzaj\u00faceho slnka, kde je ve\u013ea re\u00e1li\u00ed, ktor\u00fdmi my nedisponujeme. Pri duman\u00ed nad Japonskom si spomeniem na vetu z hollywoodskeho blockbusteru Vych\u00e1dzaj\u00face slnko, ke\u010f Sean Connery hovor\u00ed Wesley Snipesovi: \u201eV Japonsku zlo\u010dinci o\u010dak\u00e1vaj\u00fa, \u017ee ich chytia<\/em><\/strong>.\u201c O\u010dak\u00e1vaj\u00fa eur\u00f3pski zlo\u010dinci to ist\u00e9? M\u00e1me rovnak\u00fa \u0161tatistick\u00fa \u00farove\u0148 zlo\u010dinnosti? Sme my ochotn\u00ed pracova\u0165 tak ve\u013ea a by\u0165 tak loj\u00e1lni zamestnanci ako Japonci? Tu si dovol\u00edm pre kr\u00e1tkos\u0165 \u010dasu skratku – t\u00e1to paralela nesed\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Bezcenn\u00fd dlh je pre n\u00e1s, na\u0161e „luhy a h\u00e1je“, nov\u00e1 sk\u00fasenos\u0165. Nevieme sa obzrie\u0165 sp\u00e4\u0165 a pou\u010di\u0165 sa.\u00a0 A ke\u010f\u017ee sa jedna o extr\u00e9mne komplexn\u00fd jav, nevieme ani s istotou predpoklada\u0165. Tak sn\u00e1\u010f to dobre dopadne.<\/p>\n

Ale predsa, iba kr\u00e1tka my\u0161lienka. Ak\u00e9 d\u00f4sledky m\u00f4\u017ee ma\u0165 pre n\u00e1s \u017eivot v prostred\u00ed, kde dlh nem\u00e1 cenu?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ak sa na to pozriem cez hlavn\u00fdch akt\u00e9rov tejto spolo\u010denskej interakcie, p\u00f4\u017ei\u010dka je pre verite\u013ea aj dl\u017en\u00edka silne ur\u010dovan\u00e1 jeho motiv\u00e1ciami.<\/p>\n

Dl\u017en\u00edci, \u010di s\u00fa to jednotlivci, vl\u00e1dy \u010di firmy, platia za peniaze, ktor\u00e9 chc\u00fa pou\u017ei\u0165 na to, \u010do nemaj\u00fa a chc\u00fa to. U v\u00e4\u010d\u0161iny ide o ve\u013emi siln\u00fa motiv\u00e1ciu, zadl\u017eujeme sa radi. Verite\u013e nevie alebo nechce pou\u017ei\u0165 peniaze, ktor\u00e9 m\u00e1 a tak za ich po\u017ei\u010danie priv\u00edta \u00farok. Motiv\u00e1cia spori\u0165 je siln\u00e1, \u00faspory tvor\u00edme z tis\u00edc d\u00f4vodov a je ich ve\u013ea.<\/p>\n

Ale kde skon\u010dia na\u0161e \u00faspory dramaticky a rozhoduj\u00faco ovplyv\u0148uje atraktivita v\u00fdnosu, ktor\u00fa pon\u00faka miesto, kam ich ulo\u017e\u00edme, teda komu ich po\u017ei\u010diame. Ak tam nie je v\u00fdnos, dr\u017ea\u0165 tam peniaze po dohodnut\u00fa dobu odmietame. Ve\u010f pre\u010do by sme to robili? Teda m\u00f4\u017eeme poveda\u0165, \u017ee v situ\u00e1cii nulov\u00fdch \u00farokov str\u00e1ca verite\u013e svoju kritick\u00fa motiv\u00e1ciu aby konal tak ako v \u010dase, ke\u010f ju e\u0161te mal.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u010co sa teda stane, ke\u010f sa v\u0161etky tie peniaze nemotivovan\u00fdch verite\u013eov za\u010dn\u00fa pres\u00fava\u0165? A ot\u00e1zkou je kam sa za\u010dn\u00fa pres\u00fava\u0165. N\u00e1rast rizikovosti investi\u010dn\u00fdch akt\u00edv je logick\u00fdm sprievodn\u00fdm javom n\u00edzkych a nulov\u00fdch \u00farokov na bezpe\u010dnej\u0161\u00edch akt\u00edvach. A ak t\u00e1to situ\u00e1cia bude trva\u0165 dlh\u0161ie.<\/p>\n

Ak sa r\u00fdchle ukon\u010denie aktu\u00e1lneho stavu sa pravdepodobn\u00fdm nejav\u00ed, op\u00e4\u0165 si dovol\u00edm skratku: tak ak\u00e1 bude cena \u0161tvorcov\u00e9ho metra bytu v Bratislave o p\u00e1r rokov?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bezcenn\u00fd dlh m\u00e1 potenci\u00e1l ovplyvni\u0165 prakticky ka\u017ed\u00fa str\u00e1nku ekonomick\u00e9ho diania<\/strong>. Takto iniciovan\u00e9 zmeny bud\u00fa komplexn\u00e9, m\u00f4\u017eu by\u0165 ve\u013ek\u00e9 a nepredpokladan\u00e9. Sme si ist\u00ed, \u017ee toto chceme? Toto chceme v obdob\u00ed, ke\u010f n\u00e1m \u0161tandardn\u00e9 nastavenie ekonomick\u00fdch vz\u0165ahov doru\u010dilo historicky naj\u00faspe\u0161nej\u0161iu civiliza\u010dn\u00fa \u00farove\u0148, najdlh\u0161\u00ed vek do\u017eitia, najni\u017e\u0161iu chudobu, ako t\u00e1to plan\u00e9ta za\u017eila? Chceme tak\u00fa zmenu?<\/p>\n

Prajem v\u00e1m pr\u00edjemn\u00fa jese\u0148. Tepl\u00e1 skon\u010dia, zmen\u00ed sa po\u010dasie. V\u00edtam to, preto\u017ee viem, \u017ee sa to udeje. A to je dobr\u00e9.<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

N\u00edzke \u00faroky s\u00fa dobr\u00e9 iba pre dl\u017en\u00edka, ale \u010do ak verite\u013e strat\u00ed motiv\u00e1ciu po\u017ei\u010diava\u0165, preto\u017ee sa mu to skr\u00e1tka neoplat\u00ed? Ak\u00e9 d\u00f4sledky m\u00f4\u017ee ma\u0165 pre n\u00e1s \u017eivot v prostred\u00ed, kde dlh nem\u00e1 cenu?<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-archiv","two-columns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6270","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6270"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6270\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6270"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6270"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6270"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}