Vezmime ako rozhoduj\u00faci faktor otvorenos\u0165 na\u0161ej ekonomiky a pozrime sa na to cez zjednodu\u0161uj\u00faci poh\u013ead vplyvu svetovej ekonomiky na t\u00fa na\u0161u.<\/p>\n
Ako bude vo svete, Eur\u00f3pe a v Spojen\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1toch, tak\u00e1 bude dynamika slovenskej ekonomiky.<\/p>\n
Teda ot\u00e1zkou je ako sa bude dari\u0165 svetovej ekonomike.<\/p>\n
A sk\u00fasme \u010fal\u0161ie zjednodu\u0161enie (len z d\u00f4vodu my\u0161lienkovej skratky k n\u00e1zoru), a to poh\u013ead na svetov\u00fa ekonomiku logikou poh\u013eadu be\u017enou z oblasti firemn\u00e9ho \u00fa\u010dtovn\u00edctva. Konkr\u00e9tne svetov\u00e1 ekonomika z poh\u013eadu s\u00favahy<\/strong> and v\u00fdsledovky<\/strong>. S\u00favahy v zmysle akt\u00edv a pas\u00edv, majetku a z\u00e1v\u00e4zkov, dlhov. S\u00favaha hovor\u00ed o tom ak\u00ed sme bohat\u00ed, ak\u00fd majetok vlastn\u00edme a ak\u00fdm dlhom sme za\u0165a\u017een\u00ed. V\u00fdsledovka hovor\u00ed ak\u00e9 m\u00e1me pr\u00edjmy a n\u00e1klady, ko\u013eko m\u00e1me tr\u017eieb, v\u00fdnosov a ko\u013eko mus\u00edme min\u00fa\u0165, aby sme tieto tr\u017eby dosiahli. V\u00fdsledovka hovor\u00ed ko\u013eko n\u00e1m zostane, ak\u00fd m\u00e1me zisk.<\/p>\n Ako je na tom teda svetov\u00e1 ekonomika z poh\u013eadu pomyselnej s\u00favahy? Nie dobre. Toto n\u00e1s bude st\u00e1\u0165 ve\u013ea<\/em>. Pas\u00edva, dlhy n\u00e1m narast\u00fa o dvojcifern\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo. Ve\u013emi zl\u00e1 spr\u00e1va.<\/em> Av\u0161ak v\u00fdsledovka takto vyzera\u0165 nemus\u00ed. Vr\u00e1ti sa tvorba HDP a spotreba na predkr\u00edzov\u00fa \u00farove\u0148? Budeme produkova\u0165 ako predt\u00fdm? Budeme spotrebov\u00e1va\u0165, m\u00ed\u0148a\u0165 ako predt\u00fdm? Vyzer\u00e1 to, \u017ee by to tak mohlo by. \u010co to nazna\u010duje?<\/em><\/p>\n Argumenty a n\u00e1znaky svetlej\u0161\u00edch zajtraj\u0161kov: Ak sme teda stratili \u010das\u0165 majetku (s\u00favaha), ale pr\u00edjmy n\u00e1m neklesn\u00fa (v\u00fdsledovka), spotreba bude rovnak\u00e1 ako pred v\u00edrusom a situ\u00e1cia bude sk\u00f4r dobr\u00e1. Na uliciach probl\u00e9m nebude vidie\u0165. Budeme s\u00edce viac zadl\u017een\u00ed, av\u0161ak \u0161tandard n\u00e1m neklesne. Probl\u00e9m by prudko nar\u00e1stol, ak by s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e1 situ\u00e1cia ovplyvnila aj v\u00fdsledovku. Ak by klesla spotreba, klesn\u00fa firemn\u00e9 zisky a klesn\u00fa aj pr\u00edjmy \u0161t\u00e1tnych rozpo\u010dtov a potom klesne v\u0161etko. Dr\u017eme si palce nech sa pozit\u00edvne ind\u00edcie potvrdia. A optimizmus nech zv\u00ed\u0165az\u00ed nad \u0161etren\u00edm a pesimizmom.<\/p>\n Tento poh\u013ead d\u00e1va mo\u017enos\u0165 by\u0165 aj optimistom. A tento optimizmus sa m\u00f4\u017ee r\u00fdchlo \u0161\u00edri\u0165 (rovnako ako n\u00e1s pesimizmus u\u017e t\u00fd\u017edne tla\u010d\u00ed dole). Bude dobre \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n Optimizmus je n\u00e1kazliv\u00fd a zotrva\u010dnos\u0165 by tu mohla hra\u0165 pre zmenu pozit\u00edvnu rolu v prospech rozbehnutia sa spotreby. Bud\u00fa slne\u010dn\u00e9 dni…<\/p>\n Tak si utekajte nak\u00fapi\u0165, ak to vid\u00edte rovnako (napr\u00edklad aerolinky s\u00fa za dobr\u00fa cenu) \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Pesimizmus zahalil krajinu. Nie je to dobr\u00e9 a bude to e\u0161te hor\u0161ie… Takto nejak to s nami vyzer\u00e1. Ekonomick\u00e9 perspekt\u00edvy s\u00fa chm\u00farne a je ve\u013ea d\u00f4vodov, pre\u010do to skuto\u010dne m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 zl\u00e9. Na\u0161e lok\u00e1lne \u0161pecifik\u00e1 n\u00e1m tu ve\u013emi nepom\u00e1haj\u00fa. A by\u0165 optimistom sa dnes nenos\u00ed. Ale! Ale v\u0161etko m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 aj inak. Sk\u00faste tento poh\u013ead.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-archiv","two-columns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6533","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6533"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6533\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6533"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6533"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6533"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nSpotreba ropy v \u010c\u00edne je na hodnote vy\u0161\u0161ej ako 90% oproti stavu spred kr\u00edzy.
\nAkciov\u00e9 trhy hovoria jasne, probl\u00e9m prest\u00e1va existova\u0165<\/strong>. S&P500 je na hodnote 3100, DAX atakuje 12500 (\u00fadaje k 3.6.2020). Sme ne\u010faleko z\u00f3ny jednocifern\u00e9ho poklesu od dosiahnut\u00fdch max\u00edm. Teda be\u017en\u00e1 volatilita<\/em>.
\nV\u00fdvoj nezamestnanosti v USA d\u00e1va ind\u00edcie r\u00fdchleho n\u00e1vratu do norm\u00e1lu (\u0161tatistika ADP o zamestnanosti v americkom firemnom sektore s\u00fa nad o\u010dak\u00e1vania – za m\u00e1j ubudlo iba 2,76 mili\u00f3na pracovn\u00fdch miest).<\/p>\n