{"id":6985,"date":"2021-05-31T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-30T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/uncategorized\/ako-sa-da-odhadnut-ekonomicky-vyvoj-pomocou-google\/"},"modified":"2021-05-31T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2021-05-30T23:00:00","slug":"ako-sa-da-odhadnut-ekonomicky-vyvoj-pomocou-google","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/archiv\/ako-sa-da-odhadnut-ekonomicky-vyvoj-pomocou-google\/","title":{"rendered":"Ako sa d\u00e1 odhadn\u00fa\u0165 ekonomick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj pomocou Google?"},"content":{"rendered":"<strong> Google Trends usporiada d\u00e1ta do r\u00f4znych grafov, na z\u00e1klade ktor\u00fdch je mo\u017en\u00e9 robi\u0165 zauj\u00edmav\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy. <\/strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Ekonomick\u00e9 \u00fadaje ako HDP s\u00fa zvy\u010dajne dostupn\u00e9 iba na \u0161tvr\u0165ro\u010dnej b\u00e1ze a h\u013eadaj\u00fa sa alternat\u00edvne ukazovatele ekonomickej \u010dinnosti. Pre vytv\u00e1ranie dobrej makroekonomickej politiky s\u00fa ve\u013emi potrebn\u00e9 v\u010dasn\u00e9 d\u00e1ta o s\u00fa\u010dasnom stave ekonomiky krajiny. Model na predpovedanie t\u00fd\u017edenn\u00e9ho rastu HDP je mo\u017en\u00e9 vytvori\u0165 na z\u00e1klade <strong>Google Trends<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">S Google Trends sa v\u00e4\u010d\u0161inou stret\u00e1vaj\u00fa podnikatelia, ktor\u00ed sa v\u010faka Google n\u00e1strojom sna\u017eia lep\u0161ie porozumie\u0165 spr\u00e1vaniu ich z\u00e1kazn\u00edkov. Na z\u00e1klade \u00fadajov a d\u00e1t vedia podnikatelia zlep\u0161ova\u0165 svoje produkty a nap\u00e1ja\u0165 ich na technologick\u00fa infra\u0161trukt\u00faru. <strong>Google Trends <\/strong><strong>funguje na princ\u00edpe intenzity vyh\u013ead\u00e1vania ur\u010dit\u00fdch t\u00e9m alebo fr\u00e1z.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify\">Pod\u013ea ak\u00fdch ukazovate\u013eov je mo\u017en\u00e9 predv\u00edda\u0165 v\u00fdvoj ekonomiky?<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Pomocou inform\u00e1ci\u00ed, ktor\u00e9 Google zhroma\u017e\u010fuje a poskytuje je mo\u017en\u00e9 pozorova\u0165 spr\u00e1vanie \u013eud\u00ed alebo n\u00e1sledne predv\u00edda\u0165 ur\u010dit\u00e9 zmeny a v\u00fdkyvy. Na z\u00e1klade \u00fadajov vedia analytici pozorova\u0165 <strong>migr\u00e1ciu, pohyb invest\u00edci\u00ed, zamestnanos\u0165 a t\u00fdm aj bud\u00faci ekonomick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj. <\/strong>Ako je to mo\u017en\u00e9?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Indik\u00e1torom m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 spotreba benz\u00ednu alebo energi\u00ed. Potenci\u00e1lnym ukazovate\u013eom je\u00a0 vyh\u013ead\u00e1vanie vozidiel, spotrebi\u010dov, nehnute\u013enost\u00ed. \u010eal\u0161ie k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 slov\u00e1, ktor\u00e9 \u013eudia \u010dasto m\u00f4\u017eu vyh\u013ead\u00e1va\u0165 po\u010das ekonomick\u00e9ho v\u00fdkyvu s\u00fa hypot\u00e9ky, investovanie a in\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00e9 slu\u017eby. Zauj\u00edmav\u00e9 s\u00fa priame ukazovatele chudoby, napr\u00edklad vyh\u013ead\u00e1vanie potravinov\u00fdch b\u00e1nk. Sledova\u0165 je mo\u017en\u00e9 aj priemyseln\u00fa alebo po\u013enohospod\u00e1rsku \u010dinnos\u0165 z vyh\u013ead\u00e1vania \u0161peci\u00e1lnej techniky.<\/p>\n<p>Tieto ukazovatele sa zaznamen\u00e1vaj\u00fa vo forme vyh\u013ead\u00e1van\u00fdch slovn\u00fdch spojen\u00ed v r\u00f4znych krajin\u00e1ch a jazykoch a n\u00e1sledne sa sk\u00fama ich intenzita alebo popularita vyh\u013ead\u00e1vania. Zo z\u00edskan\u00fdch \u00fadajov\u00a0 o po\u010dte vyh\u013ead\u00e1van\u00fdch fr\u00e1z v prehliada\u010di sa vytv\u00e1raj\u00fa r\u00f4zne grafy, anal\u00fdzy, porovn\u00e1vania a u\u017eito\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00e1very. Ekonomick\u00e9 \u00fadaje sa zachyt\u00e1vaj\u00fa pomocou algoritmu, ktor\u00fdm pozoruj\u00fa v\u00fdkyvy. Tieto zmeny spr\u00e1vania \u013eud\u00ed sa daj\u00fa \u0165a\u017eko odhadn\u00fa\u0165 \u0161tandardn\u00fdmi ekonometrick\u00fdmi pr\u00edstupmi, av\u0161ak s\u00fa k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 v extr\u00e9mnych situ\u00e1ci\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Model predv\u00eddania v\u00fdvoja HDP zalo\u017een\u00fd na \u00fadajoch z Google Trends pou\u017eil ekon\u00f3m a analytik, ktor\u00fd p\u00f4sob\u00ed v OECD Nicolas Woloszko. Google Trends umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00fa pou\u017e\u00edva\u0165 algoritmy, ktor\u00e9 vy\u017eaduj\u00fa ve\u013ek\u00e9 vzorky. Spomedzi mnoh\u00fdch dostupn\u00fdch premenn\u00fdch <strong>je asi 215 kateg\u00f3ri\u00ed a t\u00e9m, ktor\u00e9 sa pova\u017euj\u00fa za relevantn\u00e9 pre ekonomick\u00fa anal\u00fdzu<\/strong>. Vybran\u00e9 premenn\u00e9 sa transformuj\u00fa na medziro\u010dn\u00e9 tempo rastu. Model sa pou\u017eil na 46 krajin\u00e1ch sveta. Do anal\u00fdzy v\u00fdvoja HDP pri\u0161la nepredv\u00eddate\u013en\u00e1 udalos\u0165 \u2013 koronakr\u00edza, ktor\u00e1 m\u00e1 vplyv na ekonomiku a spr\u00e1vanie \u013eud\u00ed a to m\u00f4\u017ee s\u0165a\u017ei\u0165 interpret\u00e1ciu dosiahnut\u00fdch v\u00fdsledkov.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Na z\u00e1klade Google n\u00e1strojov sa d\u00e1 pozorova\u0165 napr\u00edklad aj migr\u00e1cia \u013eud\u00ed, \u010do m\u00e1 tie\u017e vplyv na ekonomiku kraj\u00edn. Pohyb \u013eud\u00ed vo svete m\u00f4\u017eeme sledova\u0165 r\u00f4znymi ukazovate\u013emi, ktor\u00e9 \u013eudia h\u013eadaj\u00fa v prehliada\u010di ako napr\u00edklad pracovn\u00e9 ponuky v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, b\u00fdvanie v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, poistenie do zahrani\u010dia alebo rebr\u00ed\u010dek kraj\u00edn, kde je najlep\u0161\u00ed \u017eivot. \u0160tudenti cestuj\u00fa cez hranice kv\u00f4li zahrani\u010dn\u00fdm vysok\u00fdm \u0161kol\u00e1m, o ktor\u00fdch si taktie\u017e h\u013eadaj\u00fa inform\u00e1cie na internete. Napoveda\u0165 n\u00e1m m\u00f4\u017ee aj ke\u010f \u013eudia \u010dasto h\u013eadaj\u00fa n\u00e1vody ako p\u00edsa\u0165\u00a0 \u017eivotopis v cudzom jazyku.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify\">Ak\u00e9 s\u00fa v\u00fdhody a\u00a0nev\u00fdhody vyu\u017e\u00edvania Google Trends?<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">V\u00fdhodou je, \u017ee na z\u00e1klade ve\u013ek\u00fdch rozmanit\u00fdch d\u00e1t je mo\u017en\u00e9 robi\u0165 anal\u00fdzu na t\u00fd\u017edennej b\u00e1ze, to znamen\u00e1 dostupnos\u0165 v\u010dasn\u00fdch inform\u00e1ci\u00ed o s\u00fa\u010dasnom stave ekonomiky. S pomocou t\u00fdchto d\u00e1t, ktor\u00e9 n\u00e1m hovoria o \u00a0spr\u00e1van\u00ed sa \u013eud\u00ed analytici vedia odhadn\u00fa\u0165 r\u00f4zne v\u00fdkyvy a ekonomick\u00e9 dopady. Nev\u00fdhodou je, \u017ee Google Trends poskytuje iba relat\u00edvne \u010d\u00edsla a absol\u00fatny po\u010det nepozn\u00e1me.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Niektor\u00e9 situ\u00e1cie nie je mo\u017en\u00e9 presne predv\u00edda\u0165 alebo dokonca m\u00f4\u017eu by\u0165 \u00faplne nepov\u0161imnut\u00e9, nako\u013eko \u013eudia, ktor\u00fdch m\u00f4\u017eu niektor\u00e9 javy postihn\u00fa\u0165 najviac, nemusia ma\u0165 pr\u00edstup na internet. \u010eal\u0161ou nev\u00fdhodou je, \u017ee v\u00fdsledky m\u00f4\u017eu falo\u0161ne vies\u0165 k ur\u010dit\u00e9mu z\u00e1veru, nako\u013eko \u013eudia \u010dasto v prehliada\u010di nie\u010do vyh\u013ead\u00e1vaj\u00fa z in\u00e9ho d\u00f4vodu ako by sme predpokladali, napr\u00edklad \u0161tudenti, ktor\u00ed dan\u00e9 inform\u00e1cie vyh\u013ead\u00e1vaj\u00fa pre \u0161kolsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dely.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Aj ke\u010f Google Trends m\u00e1 svoje v\u00fdhody aj nev\u00fdhody, je ve\u013emi zauj\u00edmav\u00e9, ako sa d\u00e1 pozorova\u0165 spr\u00e1vanie \u013eud\u00ed a\u00a0n\u00e1sledne sa pripravi\u0165 na ne\u010dakan\u00e9 situ\u00e1cie. R\u00fdchla digitaliz\u00e1cia prin\u00e1\u0161a nov\u00e9 trendy a\u00a0modern\u00e9 met\u00f3dy z\u00edskavania r\u00f4znych \u00fadajov, \u010do pom\u00e1ha jednotlivcom, aj celej spolo\u010dnosti.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomick\u00e9 \u00fadaje ako HDP s\u00fa zvy\u010dajne dostupn\u00e9 iba na \u0161tvr\u0165ro\u010dnej b\u00e1ze a h\u013eadaj\u00fa sa alternat\u00edvne ukazovatele ekonomickej \u010dinnosti. Pre vytv\u00e1ranie dobrej makroekonomickej politiky s\u00fa ve\u013emi<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6985","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-archiv","two-columns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6985","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6985"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6985\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6985"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6985"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/instrid.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6985"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}