The EBA’s dashboard published on 9 October 2026 projects that EU/EEA banks will remain above minimum capital requirements under the fully loaded CRR3 framework. The estimate also shows a larger output-floor impact than the previous dashboard projection, but it still shows average capital levels above minimum requirements.
A dated regulatory snapshot, not a live forecast
The European Banking Authority published the CRR3/CRD6 dashboard on 9 October 2026, using data for 129 banks at the highest level of consolidation across the EU/EEA. It includes observed data for the first and second quarters of 2026, projections through the remaining implementation period to 2030, and a projection under the fully loaded framework.
The exercise uses a static-balance-sheet assumption. In practical terms, the projection holds banks’ balance sheets constant over the period.
The fully loaded figures use the final 72.5% output-floor calibration and reverse the effect of transitional arrangements relevant to the output-floor calculation.
The headline result: capital remains above the minimum
The average projected Common Equity Tier 1 ratio under the fully loaded CRR3 framework is 15.1%. The EBA also projects that 33 institutions would be bound by the fully loaded output floor.
The dashboard estimates that fully loaded capital shortfalls would average only 0.6% of the sample banks’ current total capital. Under the static-balance-sheet assumption, the EBA reports no capital shortfalls before 2030. It projects total shortfalls of EUR 2.2 billion in 2030 and EUR 18.5 billion under the fully loaded framework in 2033.
These figures should be read together: the dashboard identifies an increase in required capital associated with the output floor, while still showing capital levels above minimum requirements on average under the stated assumptions. The calculations cover overall capital requirements and do not include Pillar 2 Guidance.
What changed from the previous EBA estimate
The projected relative increase in Tier 1 minimum required capital under fully loaded CRR3 rose to 6.0%, compared with 5.1% in the previous estimate based on Q4 2025 data.
iNSTRID calculation: the difference between the two reported projections is 0.9 percentage points, calculated as 6.0% − 5.1% = 0.9 percentage points. This is a change between two EBA estimates based on different reporting periods—not a measured 0.9-point fall in banks’ capital ratios.
The EBA links the higher estimated output-floor impact mainly to higher standardised total risk exposure amounts. It also points to increased exposures at some institutions that remain subject to transitional arrangements. The authority notes that current supervisory reporting data do not yet fully capture credit-risk transitional arrangements, a limitation it expects to address in future reporting releases.
How to read the result—and what it does not establish
The source establishes a projected aggregate result for a defined sample of 129 banks, under a static-balance-sheet assumption and a specified fully loaded CRR3 calibration. It does not provide a bank-by-bank outcome in the supplied material, nor does it describe how institutions will change their balance sheets in response. It also does not establish that every bank has the same capital position, that the projected shortfalls will occur exactly as shown, or that the projection represents a current market measure.
The reported figures are scenario-based regulatory calculations tied to the implementation framework.
The source further states that the credit-risk impact is recorded as zero in the dashboard and is not reflected in the total Tier 1 minimum required capital impact. That accounting treatment should not be reinterpreted as evidence that credit risk is absent from banks or from the banking system.
What to verify in the next dashboard release
For a disciplined reading of future updates, track four items:
- The reporting date and comparison base. The current 6.0% estimate is compared with 5.1% based on Q4 2025 data; future changes should be tied to the relevant observation period.
- The balance-sheet assumption. Check whether the next exercise still assumes static balance sheets or uses a different basis.
- The treatment of transitional arrangements. The EBA says current supervisory reporting does not yet fully capture credit-risk transitions, so later releases may revise the estimated impact as reporting improves.
- The projected shortfall figures and scope. Compare the horizon, the number of institutions bound by the output floor, and whether the calculation continues to exclude Pillar 2 Guidance.
This checklist separates a change in the regulatory estimate from a change in observed bank capital. That distinction is essential when comparing editions.
Key takeaways and FAQs
What average CET1 ratio does the EBA project under fully loaded CRR3?
The EBA projects an average Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 15.1% under the fully loaded CRR3 framework.
How did the projected Tier 1 capital impact change?
The projected relative increase rose from 5.1% based on Q4 2025 data to 6.0%, a difference of 0.9 percentage points.
How many institutions would be bound by the fully loaded output floor?
The dashboard reports that 33 institutions would be bound by the fully loaded output floor.
Does the dashboard project capital shortfalls before 2030?
No. Under its static-balance-sheet assumption, the EBA reports no capital shortfalls before 2030.
What to take away
The 9 October 2026 EBA dashboard points to a higher projected CRR3 output-floor impact than the previous estimate, but it still shows average capital levels above minimum requirements under the fully loaded framework. The key qualification is methodological: the figures are projections for a defined sample, based on static balance sheets, specified transitional-arrangement treatment and overall capital requirements excluding Pillar 2 Guidance. The next release should be read for changes in those assumptions.
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This article is informational and does not replace financial, investment or mortgage advice.
